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QE开始缩减但时间长于预期,欧元区将继续维持货币宽松——2017年10月欧央行议息会议点评

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年05月22日 08:54:19
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5分分彩计划软件平台直属招商客服【微信QQ同步】7915171诚招代理龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯5,10分欢乐生肖,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。QE开始缩减但时间长于预期,欧元区将继续维持货币宽松——2017年10月欧央行议息会议点评

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(  结)(论)(或)(投)(资)(建)(议)(:
  10月)(26日)(,欧)(央)(行)(宣)(布)(利)(率)(决)(议)(,维)(持)(三)(大)(基)(准)(利)(率)(不)(变)(。同)(时)(欧)(央)(行)(宣)(布)(从)(2018年)(1月)(到)(9月)(底)(,每)(月)(购)(债)(300亿)(欧)(元)(;且)(如)(果)(需)(要)(,购)(债)(计)(划)(还)(会)(延)(长)(,直)(到)(通)(胀)(路)(径)(符)(合)(欧)(央)(行)(的)(目)(标)(。利)(率)(决)(议)(发)(布)(后)(,欧)(元)(兑)(美)(元)(大)(跌)(,在)(德)(拉)(吉)(讲)(话)(期)(间)(先)(略)(回)(调)(,后)(又)(大)(跌)(,在)(北)(京)(时)(间)(0点)(左)(右)(跌)(破)(1.17。美)(元)(指)(数)(则)(突)(破)(94点)(,并)(有)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(趋)(势)(。COMEX黄)(金)(先)(跌)(后)(涨)(。德)(国)(10年)(期)(国)(债)(利)(率)(跌)(破)(0.45%。美)(国)(标)(普)(500和)(道)(指)(均)(开)(盘)(上)(涨)(,德)(国)(DAX、欧)(洲)(STOXX50指)(数)(均)(在)(利)(率)(决)(议)(发)(布)(时)(出)(现)(短)(线)(上)(扬)(。
  并)(没)(有)(给)(出)(明)(确)(的)(退)(出)(时)(点)(,而)(是)(做)(出)(了)(一)(个)(开)(放)(性)(决)(策)(。之)(后)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(决)(策)(仍)(要)(看)(经)(济)(和)(通)(胀)(形)(势)(,甚)(至)(可)(能)(还)(会)(延)(长)(购)(债)(计)(划)(。
  德)(拉)(吉)(在)(讲)(话)(中)(强)(调)(,欧)(元)(区)(目)(前)(仍)(需)(要)(“非)(常)(宽)(松)(”的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,在)(QE完)(结)(的)(“很)(长)(”一)(段)(时)(间)(后)(再)(做)(加)(息)(,并)(认)(为)(“美)(国)(复)(苏)(情)(况)(远)(超)(于)(欧)(洲)(”。从)(引)(号)(中)(可)(以)(看)(出)(德)(拉)(吉)(极)(度)(偏)(鸽)(,十)(分)(关)(注)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(的)(情)(况)(,希)(望)(等)(整)(个)(经)(济)(稳)(固)(通)(胀)(出)(现)(明)(显)(上)(行)(之)(后)(再)(做)(货)(币)(收)(紧)(。潜)(在)(通)(胀)(指)(标)(表)(明)(通)(胀)(上)(升)(,但)(核)(心)(通)(胀)(率)(仍)(未)(表)(现)(出)(令)(人)(信)(服)(的)(持)(续)(上)(行)(趋)(势)(。欧)(元)(区)(经)(济)(扩)(张)(将)(是)(稳)(固)(的)(,但)(受)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(与)(全)(球)(因)(素)(的)(影)(响)(,经)(济)(下)(行)(风)(险)(依)(旧)(存)(在)(,仍)(需)(要)(欧)(洲)(央)(行)(的)(持)(续)(支)(持)(,目)(前)(利)(率)(水)(平)(将)(持)(续)(至)(QE结)(束)(之)(后)(。我)(们)(认)(为)(这)(是)(此)(次)(比)(较)(低)(于)(市)(场)(预)(期)(的)(一)(点)(,也)(就)(是)(说)(市)(场)(预)(计)(到)(2018年)(,美)(欧)(短)(端)(利)(差)(开)(始)(收)(敛)(的)(想)(法)(落)(空)(。
  总)(体)(说)(来)(,此)(次)(会)(议)(内)(容)(明)(显)(偏)(鸽)(,欧)(元)(区)(离)(“缩)(表)(”还)(尚)(有)(一)(段)(距)(离)(,而)(非)(常)(态)(的)(再)(融)(资)(操)(作)(方)(式)(,仍)(将)(持)(续)(到)(2019年)(底)(。此)(外)(,此)(次)(会)(议)(延)(长)(了)(购)(债)(计)(划)(,且)(并)(没)(有)(为)(QE结)(束)(设)(定)(硬)(性)(期)(限)(。即)(使)(在)(QE结)(束)(之)(后)(“很)(久)(”再)(上)(调)(利)(率)(,也)(极)(为)(鸽)(,这)(直)(接)(导)(致)(市)(场)(之)(前)(预)(期)(的)(2018年)(上)(半)(年)(美)(欧)(短)(端)(利)(差)(开)(始)(收)(敛)(的)(想)(法)(落)(空)(,因)(此)(这)(个)(时)(点)(会)(继)(续)(支)(撑)(美)(元)(继)(续)(反)(弹)(向)(上)(。
  1欧)(央)(行)(削)(减)(QE计)(划)(偏)(鸽)(派)(,美)(元)(上)(涨)(
  10月)(26日)(,欧)(央)(行)(宣)(布)(利)(率)(决)(议)(,欧)(央)(行)(决)(定)(:
  1)维)(持)(三)(大)(基)(准)(利)(率)(不)(变)(。再)(融)(资)(利)(率)(、隔)(夜)(贷)(款)(利)(率)(和)(隔)(夜)(存)(款)(利)(率)(分)(别)(为)(0.0%,0.25%和)(-0.4%。并)(且)(欧)(央)(行)(预)(期)(,在)(资)(产)(净)(购)(买)(结)(束)(之)(后)(一)(段)(时)(间)(,主)(要)(利)(率)(仍)(会)(维)(持)(在)(目)(前)(的)(水)(平)(。
  2)欧)(央)(行)(宣)(布)(从)(2018年)(1月)(到)(9月)(底)(,每)(月)(购)(债)(300亿)(欧)(元)(;且)(如)(果)(需)(要)(,购)(债)(计)(划)(还)(会)(延)(长)(,直)(到)(通)(胀)(路)(径)(符)(合)(欧)(央)(行)(的)(目)(标)(。目)(前)(的)(购)(债)(计)(划)(为)(每)(月)(600亿)(欧)(元)(,持)(续)(到)(今)(年)(12月)(底)(,此)(次)(将)(购)(债)(计)(划)(减)(为)(一)(半)(,但)(延)(长)(了)(购)(债)(期)(限)(。欧)(央)(行)(还)(提)(到)(如)(果)(未)(来)(经)(济)(形)(势)(恶)(化)(,可)(能)(会)(增)(加)(购)(债)(的)(数)(量)(和)(期)(限)(。
  3)到)(期)(债)(券)(的)(收)(益)(再)(投)(资)(会)(持)(续)(到)(净)(资)(产)(购)(买)(结)(束)(之)(后)(很)(长)(的)(时)(间)(,来)(为)(市)(场)(提)(供)(流)(动)(性)(和)(保)(证)(货)(币)(政)(策)(稳)(定)(性)(。
  4)要)(再)(融)(资)(和)(长)(期)(再)(融)(资)(操)(作)(,会)(继)(续)(以)(目)(前)(固)(定)(利)(率)(招)(标)(的)(方)(式)(,至)(少)(持)(续)(到)(2019年)(最)(后)(一)(个)(“准)(备)(金)(维)(护)(期)(”(ReserveMaintenancePeriod)。
  在)(之)(后)(的)(新)(闻)(发)(布)(会)(上)(,德)(拉)(吉)(承)(认)(核)(心)(通)(胀)(尚)(未)(出)(现)(上)(行)(趋)(势)(,但)(认)(为)(中)(期)(而)(言)(通)(胀)(会)(继)(续)(上)(升)(。他)(还)(表)(示)(,全)(球)(复)(苏)(支)(持)(欧)(元)(区)(出)(口)(,欧)(元)(区)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(风)(险)(是)(平)(衡)(的)(。但)(随)(后)(,德)(拉)(吉)(又)(说)(,欧)(洲)(目)(前)(仍)(需)(要)(“非)(常)(宽)(松)(”的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,在)(QE完)(结)(的)(“很)(长)(”一)(段)(时)(间)(后)(再)(做)(加)(息)(,“美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(复)(苏)(程)(度)(远)(胜)(欧)(洲)(”。
  利)(率)(决)(议)(发)(布)(后)(,欧)(元)(兑)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(大)(跌)(,在)(德)(拉)(吉)(讲)(话)(期)(间)(一)(开)(始)(先)(有)(回)(调)(,但)(在)(德)(拉)(吉)(说)(“美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(复)(苏)(程)(度)(远)(胜)(欧)(洲)(”之)(后)(,欧)(元)(兑)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(再)(次)(大)(跌)(,在)(北)(京)(时)(间)(0点)(左)(右)(跌)(破)(1.17。美)(元)(指)(数)(则)(突)(破)(94点)(。COMEX黄)(金)(震)(荡)(下)(跌)(。受)(到)(利)(率)(决)(议)(刺)(激)(,欧)(股)(欧)(债)(均)(向)(好)(,德)(国)(DAX指)(数)(、欧)(洲)(STOXX50均)(出)(现)(上)(涨)(,德)(国)(10年)(期)(国)(债)(利)(率)(在)(利)(率)(决)(策)(之)(后)(下)(降)(,跌)(破)(0.45%。
  
  
  
  
  
  
  在)(12号)(,有)(匿)(名)(的)(欧)(央)(行)(官)(员)(称)(,购)(债)(规)(模)(将)(会)(缩)(减)(到)(300亿)(欧)(元)(/月)(,并)(持)(续)(9个)(月)(,此)(后)(市)(场)(及)(时)(更)(新)(了)(自)(己)(的)(预)(期)(。因)(此)(,此)(次)(公)(布)(的)(缩)(减)(QE计)(划)(是)(比)(较)(符)(合)(预)(期)(的)(。
  但)(会)(议)(公)(布)(的)(其)(他)(信)(息)(是)(低)(于)(预)(期)(的)(部)(分)(。此)(次)(会)(议)(表)(示)(,在)(资)(产)(净)(购)(买)(结)(束)(之)(后)(一)(段)(时)(间)(,主)(要)(利)(率)(仍)(会)(维)(持)(在)(目)(前)(的)(水)(平)(。此)(次)(会)(议)(延)(长)(了)(购)(债)(计)(划)(至)(2018年)(9月)(,且)(并)(没)(有)(为)(QE结)(束)(设)(定)(硬)(性)(期)(限)(。即)(使)(到)(了)(9月)(不)(再)(延)(长)(资)(产)(净)(购)(买)(,加)(息)(也)(远)(在)(在)(2018年)(9月)(之)(后)(,这)(直)(接)(导)(致)(市)(场)(之)(前)(预)(期)(的)(2018年)(上)(半)(年)(美)(欧)(短)(端)(利)(差)(开)(始)(收)(敛)(的)(想)(法)(落)(空)(。
  会)(议)(纪)(要)(还)(显)(示)(,停)(止)(对)(到)(期)(债)(券)(再)(投)(资)(,也)(就)(是)(实)(质)(上)(“缩)(表)(”,会)(在)(资)(产)(净)(购)(买)(结)(束)(之)(后)(,再)(过)(一)(段)(很)(长)(的)(时)(间)(;欧)(央)(行)(在)(金)(融)(危)(机)(之)(后)(使)(用)(的)(“固)(定)(利)(率)(招)(标)(”的)(再)(融)(资)(方)(式)(,也)(将)(持)(续)(到)(2019年)(底)(。
  如)(果)(我)(们)(再)(结)(合)(德)(拉)(吉)(在)(新)(闻)(发)(布)(会)(上)(的)(表)(述)(,可)(以)(看)(出)(此)(次)(欧)(央)(行)(议)(息)(会)(议)(内)(容)(明)(显)(偏)(鸽)(。欧)(央)(行)(的)(政)(策)(在)(这)(个)(时)(点)(会)(继)(续)(支)(撑)(美)(元)(继)(续)(反)(弹)(向)(上)(。
  2欧)(央)(行)(QE的)(历)(史)(进)(程)(
  金)(融)(危)(机)(后)(欧)(央)(行)(的)(量)(化)(宽)(松)(政)(策)(分)(为)(两)(个)(阶)(段)(,第)(一)(阶)(段)(2009-2014年)(,主)(要)(政)(策)(手)(段)(为)(旨)(在)(提)(供)(流)(动)(性)(的)(非)(常)(规)(长)(期)(再)(融)(资)(操)(作)((LTRO)和)(资)(产)(担)(保)(债)(券)(购)(买)(计)(划)((CBPP1和)(CBPP2)。尽)(管)(第)(一)(阶)(段)(宽)(松)(政)(策)(一)(定)(程)(度)(缓)(解)(了)(政)(府)(债)(务)(纾)(困)(的)(问)(题)(,但)(未)(从)(根)(本)(上)(解)(决)(通)(缩)(困)(境)(。
  2014年)(欧)(央)(行)(不)(得)(不)(启)(用)(更)(为)(激)(进)(的)(宽)(松)(政)(策)(,即)(第)(二)(阶)(段)(量)(化)(宽)(松)(,内)(容)(包)(括)(:(1)负)(利)(率)(政)(策)((将)(存)(款)(便)(利)(工)(具)(利)(率)(由)(0降)(至)(-0.40%);(2)目)(标)(长)(期)(再)(融)(资)(操)(作)((TLTRO)(旨)(在)(重)(建)(私)(人)(部)(门)(的)(融)(资)(能)(力)();(3)资)(产)(购)(置)(计)(划)((Assetpurchaseprogrammes,APP)(每)(月)(购)(买)(约)(600亿)(-800亿)(欧)(元)(的)(不)(同)(类)(型)(的)(债)(券)(资)(产)()。
  
  目)(前)(,欧)(央)(行)(持)(有)(资)(产)(购)(置)(计)(划)(的)(头)(寸)(合)(计)(为)(2.1万)(亿)(欧)(元)(,各)(项)(资)(产)(购)(买)(计)(划)(的)(头)(寸)(占)(比)(分)(别)(为)(“资)(产)(支)(持)(证)(券)(”(1.1%)、“资)(产)(担)(保)(购)(买)(债)(券)(计)(划)(3”(10.9%)、“企)(业)(部)(门)(购)(买)(计)(划)(”(5.41%)、“公)(共)(部)(门)(购)(买)(计)(划)(”(82.5%)。
  
  目)(前)(市)(场)(对)(欧)(元)(区)(经)(济)(增)(长)(前)(景)(乐)(观)(,但)(核)(心)(通)(胀)(率)(依)(然)(不)(及)(预)(期)(的)(2%,年)(底)(预)(计)(核)(心)(通)(胀)(率)(有)(小)(幅)(下)(滑)(趋)(势)(,同)(时)(受)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(与)(全)(球)(因)(素)(影)(响)(的)(经)(济)(下)(行)(风)(险)(依)(旧)(存)(在)(,仍)(需)(要)(欧)(洲)(央)(行)(的)(持)(续)(支)(持)(,目)(前)(利)(率)(水)(平)(将)(持)(续)(至)(QE结)(束)(之)(后)(。我)(们)(认)(为)(这)(是)(此)(次)(比)(较)(低)(于)(市)(场)(预)(期)(的)(一)(点)(,也)(就)(是)(说)(市)(场)(预)(计)(到)(2018年)(,美)(欧)(短)(端)(利)(差)(开)(始)(收)(敛)(的)(想)(法)(落)(空)(。
  
  欧)(元)(走)(强)(,美)(元)(继)(续)(承)(压)(——欧)(洲)(议)(息)(会)(议)(点)(评)(2017-09-08
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