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风向已变!“铁公基”投资回落成定局

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年05月22日 08:58:34
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(原)(标)(题)(:风)(向)(已)(变)(!“铁)(公)(基)(”投)(资)(回)(落)(成)(定)(局)(
PPP知)(乎)(,您)(的)(PPP大)(百)(科)(!我)(们)(建)(立)(了)(完)(整)(的)(PPP知)(识)(索)(引)(体)(系)(,微)(信)(对)(话)(框)(回)(复)(索)(引)(号)(【001】,可)(查)(看)(更)(多)(其)(他)(PPP定)(义)(、发)(展)(历)(程)(与)(分)(类)(相)(关)(文)(章)(。
来)(源)(:苏)(宁)(财)(富)(资)(讯)(
作)(者)(简)(介)(:黄)(志)(龙)(苏)(宁)(金)(融)(研)(究)(院)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(研)(究)(中)(心)(主)(任)(
过)(去)(几)(年)(,PPP(公)(私)(合)(营)()一)(直)(是)(基)(建)(投)(资)(持)(续)(高)(速)(增)(长)(的)(利)(器)(。然)(而)(,到)(了)(2018年)(,经)(历)(了)(粗)(放)(式)(快)(速)(扩)(张)(后)(的)(PPP,开)(始)(进)(入)(了)(规)(范)(发)(展)(阶)(段)(。这)(将)(会)(对)(2018年)(基)(建)(投)(资)(、总)(投)(资)(乃)(至)(经)(济)(增)(长)(前)(景)(产)(生)(哪)(些)(影)(响)(,值)(得)(投)(资)(者)(和)(分)(析)(人)(士)(关)(注)(。
PPP的)(政)(策)(取)(向)(已)(发)(生)(转)(变)(
如)(果)(说)(2016年)(是)(PPP的)(启)(动)(年)(,2017年)(是)(扩)(张)(年)(,那)(么)(2018年)(则)(是)(PPP的)(规)(范)(和)(清)(理)(整)(顿)(年)(。最)(近)(几)(个)(月)(,中)(央)(各)(部)(门)(对)(于)(PPP的)(入)(库)(门)(槛)(、融)(资)(渠)(道)(和)(央)(企)(参)(与)(等)(方)(面)(的)(政)(策)(取)(向)(发)(生)(了)(重)(大)(转)(变)(,主)(要)(体)(现)(在)(以)(下)(三)(个)(关)(键)(政)(策)(文)(件)(。
2017年)(11月)(16日)(,财)(政)(部)(出)(台)(《关)(于)(规)(范)(政)(府)(和)(社)(会)(资)(本)(合)(作)((PPP)综)(合)(信)(息)(平)(台)(项)(目)(库)(管)(理)(的)(通)(知)(》(财)(政)(部)(92号)(文)(),要)(求)(“进)(一)(步)(规)(范)(政)(府)(和)(社)(会)(资)(本)(合)(作)((PPP)项)(目)(运)(作)(,防)(止)(PPP异)(化)(为)(新)(的)(融)(资)(平)(台)(,坚)(决)(遏)(制)(隐)(性)(债)(务)(风)(险)(增)(量)(”。为)(此)(,该)(文)(件)(提)(出)(“按)(效)(付)(费)(机)(制)(”等)(严)(格)(的)(入)(库)(标)(准)(,并)(对)(“违)(法)(违)(规)(举)(债)(担)(保)(”等)(已)(入)(库)(项)(目)(进)(行)(清)(理)(整)(顿)(。此)(文)(件)(的)(主)(要)(目)(标)(是)(对)(地)(方)(政)(府)(通)(过)(PPP项)(目)(变)(相)(举)(债)(的)(行)(为)(加)(强)(监)(管)(。
2017年)(11月)(17日)(,一)(行)(三)(会)(联)(合)(发)(布)(《关)(于)(规)(范)(金)(融)(机)(构)(资)(产)(管)(理)(业)(务)(的)(指)(导)(意)(见)((征)(求)(意)(见)(稿)()》,虽)(然)(政)(策)(未)(最)(后)(落)(地)(,但)(仍)(将)(从)(根)(本)(上)(限)(制)(PPP资)(本)(金)(融)(资)(渠)(道)(和)(后)(续)(资)(金)(安)(排)(的)(进)(度)(,对)(落)(地)(和)(未)(签)(约)(的)(项)(目)(产)(生)(极)(大)(影)(响)(。
2017年)(11月)(26日)(,国)(资)(委)(印)(发)(《关)(于)(加)(强)(中)(央)(企)(业)(PPP业)(务)(风)(险)(管)(控)(的)(通)(知)(》(国)(资)(委)(192号)(文)(),对)(于)(央)(企)(参)(与)(PPP项)(目)(的)(规)(模)(、范)(围)(进)(行)(了)(严)(格)(规)(定)(,要)(求)(“纳)(入)(中)(央)(企)(业)(债)(务)(风)(险)(管)(控)(范)(围)(的)(企)(业)(集)(团)(,累)(计)(对)(PPP项)(目)(的)(净)(投)(资)(原)(则)(上)(不)(得)(超)(过)(上)(一)(年)(度)(集)(团)(合)(并)(净)(资)(产)(的)(50%”,同)(时)(“资)(产)(负)(债)(率)(高)(于)(85%或)(近)(2年)(连)(续)(亏)(损)(的)(子)(企)(业)(不)(得)(单)(独)(投)(资)(PPP项)(目)(”。
由)(此)(可)(见)(,2018年)(中)(央)(和)(各)(部)(门)(清)(理)(整)(顿)(PPP、防)(控)(PPP带)(来)(的)(地)(方)(债)(务)(风)(险)(和)(金)(融)(风)(险)(已)(势)(在)(必)(行)(。
PPP大)(跃)(进)(式)(发)(展)(或)(提)(前)(终)(结)(
事)(实)(上)(,PPP的)(政)(策)(取)(向)(转)(变)(已)(经)(对)(PPP项)(目)(发)(展)(产)(生)(重)(要)(影)(响)(。从)(已)(经)(公)(布)(的)(PPP项)(目)(、投)(资)(回)(报)(、民)(企)(参)(与)(度)(等)(数)(据)(看)(,以)(下)(三)(方)(面)(趋)(势)(值)(得)(高)(度)(关)(注)(。
首)(先)(是)(新)(增)(入)(库)(项)(目)(数)(量)(和)(投)(资)(规)(模)(都)(出)(现)(显)(著)(回)(落)(。根)(据)(全)(国)(PPP综)(合)(信)(息)(平)(台)(库)(,截)(至)(2017年)(12月)(末)(,收)(入)(管)(理)(库)(和)(储)(备)(清)(单)(的)(全)(国)(PPP项)(目)(共)(14424个)(,总)(投)(资)(额)(18.2万)(亿)(元)(,同)(比)(分)(别)(增)(长)(28.1%和)(34.8%。然)(而)(,新)(增)(入)(库)(项)(目)(数)(已)(经)(出)(现)(了)(明)(显)(下)(降)(趋)(势)(,2017年)(第)(四)(季)(度)(新)(增)(PPP项)(目)(数)(204个)(,投)(资)(额)(4000亿)(元)(,环)(比)(三)(季)(度)(分)(别)(下)(降)(69.4%和)(72.2%(参)(见)(下)(图)()。
当)(前)(,不)(但)(新)(入)(库)(PPP项)(目)(的)(门)(槛)(越)(来)(越)(高)(,已)(收)(入)(项)(目)(库)(的)(PPP项)(目)(也)(在)(清)(理)(之)(中)(。财)(政)(部)(92号)(文)(提)(出)(,只)(要)(符)(合)(以)(下)(五)(个)(条)(件)(之)(一)(的)(PPP项)(目)(,都)(将)(予)(以)(清)(退)(:
(1)未)(按)(规)(定)(开)(展)(“两)(个)(论)(证)(”;
(2)不)(宜)(继)(续)(采)(用)(PPP模)(式)(实)(施)(;
(3)不)(符)(合)(规)(范)(运)(作)(要)(求)(;
(4)构)(成)(违)(法)(违)(规)(举)(债)(担)(保)(;
(5)未)(按)(规)(定)(进)(行)(信)(息)(公)(开)(。
对)(这)(五)(个)(条)(件)(,财)(政)(部)(92号)(文)(中)(都)(有)(十)(分)(详)(尽)(的)(规)(定)(。由)(此)(可)(见)(,2018年)(预)(计)(PPP入)(库)(速)(度)(将)(大)(幅)(放)(缓)(,PPP项)(目)(库)(甚)(至)(可)(能)(出)(现)(绝)(对)(水)(平)(的)(明)(显)(下)(降)(。
其)(次)(,社)(会)(资)(本)(参)(与)(PPP项)(目)(积)(极)(性)(持)(续)(下)(降)(。长)(期)(以)(来)(,民)(营)(企)(业)(和)(社)(会)(资)(本)(对)(于)(参)(与)(PPP项)(目)(的)(积)(极)(性)(一)(直)(不)(高)(,原)(因)(可)(能)(在)(于)(:
一)(是)(许)(多)(PPP项)(目)(的)(盈)(利)(前)(景)(不)(明)(朗)(,逐)(利)(的)(天)(性)(使)(得)(民)(营)(企)(业)(参)(与)(PPP项)(目)(更)(加)(谨)(慎)(;
二)(是)(PPP项)(目)(资)(金)(投)(入)(回)(报)(周)(期)(长)(,与)(当)(前)(大)(多)(数)(民)(营)(企)(业)(热)(衷)(于)(“短)(平)(快)(”项)(目)(的)(特)(征)(不)(符)(;
三)(是)(民)(营)(企)(业)(在)(大)(多)(数)(PPP项)(目)(只)(能)(处)(于)(参)(股)(地)(位)(,难)(以)(对)(PPP项)(目)(运)(营)(施)(加)(权)(责)(一)(致)(的)(影)(响)(。
从)(数)(据)(来)(看)(,截)(至)(2017年)(12月)(末)(,597个)(落)(地)(示)(范)(项)(目)(共)(签)(约)(981家)(社)(会)(企)(业)(,其)(中)(国)(有)(企)(业)(569家)(,占)(比)(58%,较)(2016年)(末)(上)(升)(了)(3%,而)(民)(营)(企)(业)((含)(民)(营)(独)(资)(和)(民)(营)(控)(股)()340家)(,占)(比)(35%,尽)(管)(数)(量)(较)(2016年)(增)(加)(277家)(,但)(占)(比)(却)(大)(幅)(下)(降)(4.24个)(百)(分)(点)(。由)(此)(可)(见)(,在)(PPP大)(跃)(进)(的)(2017年)(,民)(营)(企)(业)(参)(与)(的)(积)(极)(性)(依)(然)(偏)(低)(。
最)(后)(,PPP项)(目)(平)(均)(回)(报)(率)(呈)(下)(降)(趋)(势)(。2017年)(,全)(国)(PPP成)(交)(项)(目)(平)(均)(投)(资)(回)(报)(率)(为)(6.44%,较)(2016年)(的)(6.62%下)(降)(0.18个)(百)(分)(点)(,其)(中)(降)(幅)(最)(大)(的)(农)(业)(类)(项)(目)(由)(8%降)(为)(6.9%,其)(他)(项)(目)(都)(有)(不)(同)(程)(度)(的)(下)(降)(。
PPP项)(目)(投)(资)(回)(报)(率)(的)(下)(行)(,原)(因)(可)(能)(有)(两)(方)(面)(:
一)(是)(资)(金)(市)(场)(的)(利)(率)(不)(断)(攀)(升)(,导)(致)(PPP项)(目)(融)(资)(成)(本)(有)(所)(上)(行)(,特)(别)(是)(短)(期)(PPP项)(目)(受)(到)(的)(影)(响)(更)(大)(,其)(中)(,10年)(期)(以)(下)(PPP项)(目)(回)(报)(率)(由)(6.93%降)(为)(6.30%,降)(幅)(达)(0.63个)(百)(分)(点)(;
二)(是)(大)(量)(优)(质)(PPP项)(目)(或)(已)(落)(地)(,或)(已)(投)(产)(,使)(得)(后)(期)(PPP项)(目)(的)(竞)(争)(更)(为)(激)(烈)(,项)(目)(回)(报)(率)(下)(降)(也)(就)(不)(可)(避)(免)(,其)(中)(短)(期)(中)(小)(型)(项)(目)(回)(报)(率)(下)(降)(更)(大)(,如)(5亿)(-10亿)(元)(PPP回)(报)(率)(由)(6.84%降)(为)(6.22%,30亿)(元)(以)(上)(的)(大)(项)(目)(由)(于)(竞)(争)(格)(局)(相)(对)(稳)(定)(,平)(均)(回)(报)(率)(不)(降)(反)(升)(,由)(6.38%提)(升)(至)(6.59%。
PPP回)(落)(的)(影)(响)(几)(何)(?
基)(建)(投)(资)(的)(持)(续)(增)(长)(,是)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(不)(失)(速)(的)(关)(键)(因)(素)(。在)(在)(PPP快)(速)(扩)(张)(前)(,基)(建)(投)(资)(主)(要)(由)(地)(方)(政)(府)(融)(资)(平)(台)(投)(资)(,但)(这)(使)(得)(地)(方)(债)(务)(风)(险)(剧)(增)(。为)(此)(,中)(央)(不)(得)(不)(转)(向)(PPP,希)(望)(通)(过)(吸)(引)(社)(会)(资)(本)(参)(与)(地)(方)(基)(建)(投)(资)(,同)(时)(稳)(定)(投)(资)(增)(长)(。
在)(PPP项)(目)(大)(跃)(进)(式)(发)(展)(推)(动)(下)(,2016年)(末)(已)(入)(库)(的)(PPP项)(目)(计)(划)(投)(资)(总)(额)(13.5万)(亿)(元)(,基)(建)(实)(际)(投)(资)(为)(15.7万)(亿)(元)(,前)(者)(与)(后)(者)(之)(比)(为)(88.8%。2017年)(末)(,入)(库)(PPP项)(目)(的)(计)(划)(投)(资)(规)(模)(高)(达)(18.2万)(亿)(元)(,而)(同)(期)(基)(建)(投)(资)(规)(模)(为)(17.3万)(亿)(元)(,前)(者)(为)(后)(者)(的)(105%。严)(格)(意)(义)(上)(讲)(,PPP计)(划)(投)(资)(相)(对)(于)(基)(建)(实)(际)(投)(资)(有)(一)(定)(的)(滞)(后)(期)(,但)(PPP计)(划)(投)(资)(与)(基)(建)(实)(际)(投)(资)(之)(比)(快)(速)(上)(升)(,仍)(然)(说)(明)(了)(PPP在)(基)(建)(投)(资)(中)(的)(主)(导)(地)(位)(。
进)(一)(步)(测)(算)(,在)(PPP主)(导)(的)(基)(建)(投)(资)(快)(速)(增)(长)(下)(,基)(建)(投)(资)(占)(固)(定)(资)(产)(总)(投)(资)(的)(比)(重)(,也)(从)(2014年)(初)(的)(20%上)(升)(到)(2017年)(末)(的)(27.4%(参)(见)(下)(图)()。而)(在)(此)(期)(间)(,也)(正)(是)(固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(大)(幅)(下)(滑)(的)(阶)(段)(。可)(见)(,基)(建)(投)(资)(对)(于)(稳)(投)(资)(的)(关)(键)(作)(用)(。
综)(上)(所)(述)(,2018年)(将)(是)(PPP的)(规)(范)(发)(展)(年)(,项)(目)(入)(库)(、融)(资)(和)(央)(企)(参)(与)(三)(方)(面)(受)(限)(,加)(上)(优)(质)(项)(目)(已)(经)(落)(地)(,将)(使)(得)(PPP出)(现)(整)(体)(回)(落)(。在)(此)(背)(景)(下)(,2018年)(PPP主)(导)(下)(的)(“铁)(公)(基)(”基)(建)(投)(资)(将)(继)(续)(回)(落)(。
可)(以)(预)(计)(,已)(开)(工)(的)(项)(目)(将)(继)(续)(推)(进)(,而)(已)(纳)(入)(PPP项)(目)(库)(但)(条)(件)(不)(符)(的)(项)(目)(被)(叫)(停)(的)(可)(能)(性)(较)(大)(,典)(型)(如)(2017年)(末)(包)(头)(地)(铁)(项)(目)(被)(叫)(停)(,而)(新)(入)(选)(PPP项)(目)(库)(的)(数)(量)(将)(大)(幅)(萎)(缩)(。
由)(此)(,PPP主)(导)(下)(的)(基)(建)(投)(资)(要)(保)(持)(持)(续)(高)(增)(长)(的)(难)(度)(将)(越)(来)(越)(大)(,这)(将)(会)(进)(一)(步)(加)(剧)(2018年)(投)(资)(下)(滑)(的)(压)(力)(,给)(刚)(有)(起)(色)(的)(经)(济)(增)(长)(投)(下)(阴)(影)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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