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产业巡礼系列之二】房地产开发行业评级框架

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年06月25日 21:56:49
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U米平台靠谱吗平台直属招商客服QQ【7915✶171】诚招代理龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯5,10分欢乐生肖,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。产业巡礼系列之二】房地产开发行业评级框架

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(保)(障)(性)(住)(宅)(地)(产)(和)(普)(通)(住)(宅)(地)(产)(在)(拿)(地)(、建)(设)(和)(销)(售)(环)(节)(都)(有)(很)(大)(区)(别)(。保)(障)(性)(住)(宅)(主)(要)(是)(由)(政)(府)(以)(划)(拨)(的)(方)(式)(提)(供)(土)(地)(,普)(通)(住)(宅)(用)(地)(要)(通)(过)(“招)(拍)(挂)(”等)(方)(式)(公)(开)(竞)(拍)(取)(得)(;保)(障)(性)(住)(宅)(建)(设)(项)(目)(大)(多)(由)(地)(方)(国)(企)(承)(接)(,而)(普)(通)(住)(宅)(开)(发)(既)(有)(国)(企)(也)(有)(民)(企)(参)(与)(;保)(障)(性)(住)(宅)(建)(设)(免)(收)(城)(市)(基)(础)(设)(施)(配)(套)(费)(等)(各)(种)(行)(政)(事)(业)(性)(收)(费)(和)(政)(府)(性)(基)(金)(,实)(行)(税)(收)(优)(惠)(政)(策)(,而)(普)(通)(住)(宅)(开)(发)(一)(般)(不)(享)(受)(税)(费)(减)(免)(;保)(障)(性)(住)(宅)(销)(售)(价)(格)(有)(政)(府)(指)(导)(价)(等)(限)(价)(规)(定)(,普)(通)(住)(宅)(价)(格)(由)(市)(场)(供)(需)(自)(发)(形)(成)(;保)(障)(性)(住)(宅)(销)(售)(只)(针)(对)(符)(合)(条)(件)(的)(中)(低)(收)(入)(住)(房)(困)(难)(家)(庭)(;普)(通)(住)(宅)(则)(不)(限)(定)(销)(售)(对)(象)(。
由)(于)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(中)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(居)(多)(,房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(中)(又)(以)(普)(通)(住)(宅)(地)(产)(开)(发)(为)(主)(,所)(以)(本)(文)(后)(续)(分)(析)(和)(评)(级)(主)(要)(针)(对)(以)(普)(通)(住)(宅)(地)(产)(开)(发)(为)(主)(营)(业)(务)(的)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(,后)(文)(所)(提)(及)(的)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(也)(专)(指)(普)(通)(住)(宅)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(。
1.1
房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(上)(下)(游)(、产)(业)(链)(及)(地)(产)(开)(发)(销)(售)(流)(程)(
1.2.1房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(上)(下)(游)(、产)(业)(链)(
房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(的)(上)(游)(包)(括)(土)(地)(一)(级)(开)(发)(和)(建)(筑)(公)(司)(。土)(地)(一)(级)(开)(发)(是)(指)(政)(府)(对)(国)(有)(建)(设)(用)(地)(进)(行)(征)(地)(、拆)(迁)(和)(市)(政)(配)(套)(设)(施)(建)(设)(,使)(该)(土)(地)(达)(到)(“三)(通)(一)(平)(”、“五)(通)(一)(平)(”或)(“七)(通)(一)(平)(”的)(建)(设)(条)(件)(,由)(生)(地)(变)(为)(熟)(地)(,再)(对)(熟)(地)(有)(偿)(出)(让)(或)(转)(让)(的)(过)(程)(。熟)(地)(转)(让)(对)(应)(的)(是)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(的)(拿)(地)(。房)(企)(拿)(地)(以)(后)(,将)(房)(屋)(的)(施)(工)(建)(造)(工)(作)(承)(包)(给)(建)(筑)(公)(司)(。房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(的)(下)(游)(主)(要)(是)(购)(房)(居)(民)(,也)(就)(是)(房)(企)(的)(销)(售)(对)(象)(。从)(整)(个)(产)(业)(链)(来)(看)(,房)(地)(产)(上)(下)(游)(涉)(及)(的)(行)(业)(众)(多)(,上)(游)(建)(筑)(公)(司)(施)(工)(要)(采)(购)(大)(量)(建)(造)(房)(屋)(所)(需)(材)(料)(,直)(接)(拉)(动)(钢)(铁)(、建)(材)(、化)(工)(、机)(械)(等)(行)(业)(的)(需)(求)(。下)(游)(居)(民)(购)(房)(后)(,通)(常)(要)(装)(修)(新)(房)(,因)(此)(会)(间)(接)(带)(动)(装)(修)(、家)(电)(、家)(具)(等)(行)(业)(的)(发)(展)(。
1.2.2房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(销)(售)(流)(程)(
房)(地)(产)(住)(宅)(开)(发)(包)(括)(获)(取)(土)(地)(、施)(工)(建)(设)(和)(销)(售)(三)(个)(主)(要)(环)(节)(,整)(个)(流)(程)(中)(涉)(及)(到)(常)(说)(的)(“五)(证)(两)(书)(”。五)(证)(是)(指)(《建)(设)(用)(地)(规)(划)(许)(可)(证)(》、《国)(有)(土)(地)(使)(用)(证)(》、《建)(设)(工)(程)(规)(划)(许)(可)(证)(》、《建)(筑)(工)(程)(施)(工)(许)(可)(证)(》和)(《商)(品)(房)(预)(售)(许)(可)(证)(》。两)(书)(是)(《住)(宅)(质)(量)(保)(证)(书)(》和)(《住)(宅)(使)(用)(说)(明)(书)(》。首)(先)(,房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(通)(过)(“招)(拍)(挂)(”等)(方)(式)(参)(与)(土)(地)(竞)(拍)(,竞)(拍)(成)(功)(以)(后)(签)(订)(土)(地)(出)(让)(合)(同)(,向)(城)(市)(规)(划)(部)(门)(申)(请)(《建)(设)(用)(地)(规)(划)(许)(可)(证)(》,再)(办)(理)(《国)(有)(土)(地)(使)(用)(证)(》。然)(后)(开)(始)(施)(工)(前)(的)(准)(备)(工)(作)(,先)(对)(楼)(盘)(进)(行)(设)(计)(规)(划)(,再)(去)(相)(关)(规)(划)(部)(门)(办)(理)(《建)(设)(工)(程)(规)(划)(许)(可)(证)(》,接)(下)(来)(办)(理)(《建)(筑)(工)(程)(施)(工)(许)(可)(证)(》,得)(到)(施)(工)(许)(可)(证)(后)(便)(可)(开)(始)(施)(工)(。根)(据)(《城)(市)(房)(地)(产)(管)(理)(法)(》,满)(足)(以)(下)(3个)(条)(件)(,可)(申)(请)(办)(理)(《商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(许)(可)(证)(》:1、已)(交)(付)(全)(部)(土)(地)(使)(用)(权)(出)(让)(金)(,取)(得)(土)(地)(使)(用)(权)(证)(书)(;2、持)(有)(建)(设)(工)(程)(规)(划)(许)(可)(证)(;3、按)(提)(供)(预)(售)(的)(商)(品)(房)(计)(算)(,投)(入)(开)(发)(建)(设)(的)(资)(金)(达)(到)(工)(程)(建)(设)(总)(投)(资)(的)(百)(分)(之)(二)(十)(五)(以)(上)(,并)(已)(经)(确)(定)(施)(工)(进)(度)(和)(竣)(工)(交)(付)(日)(期)(。取)(得)(预)(售)(证)(后)(,便)(可)(开)(盘)(预)(售)(。最)(后)(,房)(屋)(竣)(工)(验)(收)(合)(格)(后)(交)(付)(业)(主)(,并)(同)(时)(提)(供)(《住)(宅)(质)(量)(保)(证)(书)(》和)(《住)(宅)(使)(用)(说)(明)(书)(》。
1.3
行)(业)(特)(征)(
1.3.1属)(资)(金)(密)(集)(型)(行)(业)(
房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(杠)(杆)(率)(高)(。2016年)(三)(季)(报)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,在)(申)(万)(25个)(一)(级)(行)(业)(中)((剔)(除)(银)(行)(、非)(银)(金)(融)(和)(综)(合)(),房)(地)(产)(上)(市)(企)(业)(的)(平)(均)(资)(产)(负)(债)(率)(位)(列)(第)(一)(,高)(达)(64.46%。房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(在)(拿)(地)(和)(后)(续)(建)(设)(的)(各)(个)(环)(节)(都)(会)(采)(用)(多)(种)(手)(段)(杠)(杆)(配)(资)(:竞)(拍)(土)(地)(时)(,竞)(拍)(保)(证)(金)(利)(用)(夹)(层)(融)(资)(,土)(地)(竞)(拍)(成)(功)(后)(,土)(地)(出)(让)(金)(首)(付)(款)(采)(用)(配)(资)(,后)(续)(房)(屋)(建)(造)(阶)(段)(,向)(银)(行)(申)(请)(开)(发)(贷)(,以)(及)(发)(行)(公)(司)(债)(、非)(标)(贷)(款)(融)(资)(等)(。特)(别)(是)(在)(融)(资)(环)(境)(整)(体)(偏)(向)(宽)(松)(时)(,房)(企)(更)(容)(易)(大)(举)(借)(债)(,高)(价)(拿)(地)(,激)(进)(扩)(张)(,造)(成)(杠)(杆)(率)(攀)(升)(。不)(过)(,虽)(然)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(的)(整)(体)(资)(产)(负)(债)(率)(高)(,房)(企)(负)(债)(结)(构)(中)(预)(收)(账)(款)(占)(比)(较)(高)(,而)(预)(收)(账)(款)(是)(不)(用)(现)(金)(偿)(还)(的)(,所)(以)(对)(企)(业)(的)(资)(金)(压)(力)(影)(响)(小)(。国)(内)(房)(地)(产)(上)(市)(公)(司)(剔)(除)(预)(收)(账)(款)(后)(的)(平)(均)(资)(产)(负)(债)(率)(为)(58.42%,和)(之)(前)(考)(虑)(预)(收)(账)(款)(的)(杠)(杆)(水)(平)(相)(比)(有)(明)(显)(降)(低)(。
房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(使)(用)(自)(有)(资)(金)(比)(例)(低)(,最)(重)(要)(的)(资)(金)(来)(源)(渠)(道)(是)(定)(金)(及)(预)(收)(款)(。根)(据)(国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(,房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(进)(行)(开)(发)(所)(需)(资)(金)(来)(源)(主)(要)(分)(为)(四)(个)(部)(分)(:国)(内)(贷)(款)(,利)(用)(外)(资)(,自)(筹)(资)(金)(和)(其)(他)(资)(金)(。国)(内)(贷)(款)(包)(括)(银)(行)(贷)(款)(和)(非)(银)(行)(金)(融)(机)(构)(贷)(款)(。利)(用)(外)(资)(是)(指)(用)(于)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(与)(经)(营)(的)(境)(外)(资)(金)(,包)(括)(外)(商)(直)(接)(投)(资)(、对)(外)(借)(款)((外)(国)(政)(府)(贷)(款)(、国)(际)(金)(融)(组)(织)(贷)(款)(、出)(口)(信)(贷)(、外)(国)(银)(行)(商)(业)(贷)(款)(、对)(外)(发)(行)(债)(券)(和)(股)(票)()及)(外)(商)(其)(他)(投)(资)((包)(括)(补)(偿)(贸)(易)(和)(加)(工)(装)(配)(由)(外)(商)(提)(供)(的)(设)(备)(价)(款)(、国)(际)(租)(赁)()。自)(筹)(资)(金)(是)(指)(各)(地)(区)(、各)(部)(门)(及)(企)(事)(业)(单)(位)(筹)(集)(用)(于)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(与)(经)(营)(的)(预)(算)(外)(资)(金)(。自)(筹)(资)(金)(中)(的)(一)(部)(分)(为)(自)(有)(资)(金)(,自)(有)(资)(金)(是)(指)(凡)(属)(于)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)((单)(位)()所)(有)(者)(权)(益)(范)(围)(内)(所)(包)(括)(的)(资)(金)(,是)(按)(财)(务)(制)(度)(规)(定)(归)(企)(业)(支)(配)(的)(各)(种)(自)(有)(资)(金)(,包)(括)(企)(业)(折)(旧)(资)(金)(、资)(本)(金)(、资)(本)(公)(积)(金)(、企)(业)(盈)(余)(公)(积)(金)(及)(其)(他)(自)(有)(资)(金)(,也)(包)(括)(通)(过)(发)(行)(股)(票)(筹)(集)(的)(资)(金)(。其)(他)(资)(金)(来)(源)(主)(要)(由)(定)(金)(与)(预)(收)(款)(和)(个)(人)(按)(揭)(贷)(款)(构)(成)(,此)(外)(还)(包)(括)(债)(券)(融)(资)(、社)(会)(集)(资)(、无)(偿)(捐)(赠)(的)(资)(金)(及)(用)(征)(地)(迁)(移)(补)(偿)(费)(、移)(民)(费)(等)(。国)(内)(贷)(款)(在)(总)(资)(金)(来)(源)(中)(占)(比)(约)(为)(10%-25%,其)(中)(,银)(行)(贷)(款)(占)(比)(较)(高)(,约)(为)(10%-20%,非)(银)(行)(金)(融)(机)(构)(贷)(款)(占)(比)(仅)(为)(1%-4%。自)(筹)(资)(金)(比)(例)(约)(为)(30%-40%,其)(中)(,自)(有)(资)(金)(比)(例)(大)(概)(占)(到)(一)(半)(左)(右)(,为)(10%-20%,剩)(余)(的)(另)(一)(半)(,也)(就)(是)(自)(筹)(资)(金)(减)(去)(自)(有)(资)(金)(的)(部)(分)(,一)(般)(是)(一)(些)(非)(标)(债)(务)(融)(资)(。其)(他)(资)(金)(占)(比)(约)(为)(40%-55%,其)(中)(,定)(金)(及)(预)(收)(款)(占)(比)(约)(为)(20%-35%,个)(人)(按)(揭)(贷)(款)(比)(例)(约)(为)(13%-20%。利)(用)(外)(资)(非)(常)(少)(,占)(比)(不)(足)(3%。总)(的)(来)(看)(,房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(开)(发)(使)(用)(自)(有)(资)(金)(的)(比)(例)(不)(足)(20%,其)(最)(重)(要)(的)(资)(金)(来)(源)(渠)(道)(是)(定)(金)(及)(预)(收)(款)(,其)(次)(是)(个)(人)(按)(揭)(贷)(款)(、银)(行)(贷)(款)(、自)(有)(资)(金)(和)(非)(标)(债)(务)(融)(资)(。
从)(房)(企)(融)(资)(渠)(道)(与)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(资)(金)(来)(源)(的)(对)(应)(关)(系)(来)(看)(,银)(行)(贷)(款)(属)(于)(国)(内)(贷)(款)(,境)(外)(债)(券)(融)(资)(属)(于)(利)(用)(外)(资)(方)(式)(,股)(权)(融)(资)((包)(括)(IPO、配)(股)(和)(增)(发)()属)(于)(自)(筹)(资)(金)(。非)(标)(融)(资)(可)(划)(分)(为)(两)(部)(分)(,其)(中)(的)(非)(银)(行)(金)(融)(机)(构)(贷)(款)((包)(括)(委)(托)(贷)(款)(、信)(托)(贷)(款)(等)()属)(于)(国)(内)(贷)(款)(,除)(此)(之)(外)(的)(部)(分)((例)(如)(各)(类)(资)(管)(计)(划)(等)()可)(归)(属)(于)(自)(筹)(资)(金)(范)(畴)(。债)(券)(融)(资)(和)(销)(售)(回)(款)(都)(属)(于)(其)(他)(资)(金)(来)(源)(。
债)(券)(融)(资)(属)(于)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(资)(金)(来)(源)(中)(的)(其)(他)(资)(金)(来)(源)(,债)(券)(中)(的)(协)(会)(产)(品)(和)(ABS已)(取)(代)(公)(司)(债)(成)(为)(主)(流)(,尤)(其)(是)(ABS受)(政)(策)(利)(好)(,是)(房)(企)(融)(资)(的)(重)(要)(渠)(道)(。2016年)(10月)(,上)(交)(所)(、深)(交)(所)(相)(继)(发)(布)(《关)(于)(试)(行)(房)(地)(产)(、产)(能)(过)(剩)(行)(业)(公)(司)(债)(券)(分)(类)(监)(管)(的)(函)(》,对)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(发)(行)(公)(司)(债)(实)(行)(严)(格)(的)(分)(类)(监)(管)(。2017年)(,房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(发)(行)(公)(司)(债)(单)(只)(规)(模)(不)(能)(超)(过)(50亿)(。2018年)(,证)(监)(会)(进)(一)(步)(规)(定)(,房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(发)(行)(公)(司)(债)(只)(能)(用)(于)(偿)(还)(前)(期)(公)(司)(债)(或)(住)(房)(租)(赁)(项)(目)(建)(设)(。房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(发)(行)(公)(司)(债)(券)(融)(资)(的)(门)(槛)(大)(大)(提)(高)(,公)(司)(债)(发)(行)(规)(模)(大)(幅)(下)(降)(。交)(易)(商)(协)(会)(主)(管)(的)(券)(种)((短)(融)(,中)(票)(和)(定)(向)(工)(具)()发)(行)(标)(准)(未)(有)(明)(显)(调)(整)(,在)(公)(司)(债)(大)(幅)(提)(高)(发)(行)(标)(准)(的)(背)(景)(下)(逐)(步)(占)(据)(房)(地)(产)(债)(的)(主)(流)(,尤)(其)(是)(中)(票)(取)(代)(公)(司)(债)(成)(为)(房)(地)(产)(债)(中)(的)(第)(一)(大)(券)(种)(。ABS则)(成)(为)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(的)(第)(二)(大)(债)(券)(融)(资)(渠)(道)(,其)(中)(证)(监)(会)(主)(管)(ABS是)(绝)(对)(主)(力)(。2017年)(四)(季)(度)(,协)(会)(券)(种)(发)(行)(规)(模)(占)(房)(地)(产)(债)(的)(比)(重)(为)(54%,其)(中)(中)(票)(占)(比)(达)(到)(30%;ABS发)(行)(占)(房)(地)(产)(债)(比)(重)(为)(25%,仅)(次)(于)(中)(票)(。国)(内)(目)(前)(的)(房)(地)(产)(ABS主)(要)(包)(括)(购)(房)(尾)(款)(证)(券)(化)(、物)(业)(费)(证)(券)(化)(、运)(营)(收)(益)(权)(证)(券)(化)(、类)(REITs产)(品)(、供)(应)(链)(金)(融)(保)(理)(ABS、CMBS这)(些)(种)(类)(,其)(中)(,类)(REITs产)(品)(、供)(应)(链)(金)(融)(保)(理)(ABS等)(产)(品)(都)(极)(受)(政)(策)(鼓)(励)(和)(支)(持)(,未)(来)(仍)(有)(巨)(大)(的)(发)(展)(空)(间)(,将)(成)(为)(房)(企)(扩)(大)(融)(资)(的)(重)(要)(渠)(道)(。
1.3.2周)(期)(性)(强)(且)(受)(政)(府)(干)(预)(强)(烈)(
房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(具)(有)(周)(期)(性)(的)(特)(点)(,这)(种)(周)(期)(性)(可)(以)(从)(政)(策)(因)(素)(和)(经)(济)(因)(素)(两)(方)(面)(来)(看)(。
我)(国)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(最)(明)(显)(的)(是)(政)(策)(周)(期)(性)(。影)(响)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(的)(政)(策)(因)(素)(包)(括)(土)(地)(政)(策)(、税)(收)(政)(策)(、直)(接)(针)(对)(房)(地)(产)(的)(金)(融)(政)(策)(和)(间)(接)(影)(响)(房)(地)(产)(的)(金)(融)(政)(策)(。政)(府)(是)(土)(地)(的)(唯)(一)(供)(给)(方)(,不)(同)(区)(域)(、不)(同)(时)(期)(,政)(府)(对)(土)(地)(供)(给)(量)(的)(调)(控)(政)(策)(都)(不)(尽)(相)(同)(。土)(地)(供)(给)(直)(接)(决)(定)(了)(房)(屋)(供)(给)(,因)(此)(,土)(地)(政)(策)(是)(影)(响)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(供)(需)(均)(衡)(的)(源)(头)(因)(素)(。针)(对)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(征)(收)(的)(各)(类)(税)(费)(会)(增)(加)(房)(企)(的)(开)(发)(成)(本)(,导)(致)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(;针)(对)(购)(房)(者)(的)(税)(收)(使)(得)(购)(房)(和)(持)(有)(成)(本)(上)(升)(,从)(而)(抑)(制)(房)(地)(产)(的)(投)(机)(需)(求)(。房)(地)(产)(直)(接)(调)(控)(政)(策)(可)(分)(为)(供)(给)(端)(调)(控)(和)(需)(求)(端)(调)(控)(。供)(给)(端)(调)(控)(包)(括)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(开)(发)(贷)(、房)(地)(产)(债)(、信)(托)(非)(标)(等)(,主)(要)(针)(对)(房)(企)(的)(融)(资)(渠)(道)(。需)(求)(端)(调)(控)(包)(括)(限)(购)(限)(贷)(、首)(付)(比)(例)(等)(,主)(要)(针)(对)(居)(民)(购)(房)(贷)(款)(条)(件)(。直)(接)(作)(用)(于)(房)(地)(产)(的)(金)(融)(政)(策)(通)(常)(对)(市)(场)(供)(需)(的)(冲)(击)(力)(大)(、调)(控)(作)(用)(较)(为)(明)(显)(。间)(接)(影)(响)(房)(地)(产)(的)(金)(融)(政)(策)(包)(括)(央)(行)(的)(降)(准)(、降)(息)(等)(,通)(过)(银)(行)(信)(贷)(等)(渠)(道)(给)(市)(场)(注)(入)(流)(动)(性)(,这)(会)(间)(接)(刺)(激)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(的)(供)(给)(和)(需)(求)(。房)(地)(产)(政)(策)(都)(是)(具)(有)(周)(期)(性)(的)(,当)(市)(场)(过)(热)(、房)(价)(过)(高)(时)(,政)(府)(采)(取)(措)(施)(抑)(制)(供)(需)(;当)(库)(存)(积)(压)(、房)(价)(持)(续)(低)(迷)(时)(,便)(采)(取)(措)(施)(刺)(激)(供)(需)(。总)(的)(来)(看)(,房)(地)(产)(政)(策)(周)(期)(是)(一)(个)(收)(紧)(、放)(松)(、再)(收)(紧)(的)(循)(环)(过)(程)(,90年)(代)(至)(今)(,我)(国)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(总)(共)(经)(历)(了)(6次)(重)(大)(的)(政)(策)(周)(期)(冷)(暖)(交)(替)(。不)(过)(,这)(种)(政)(策)(周)(期)(性)(将)(来)(或)(许)(会)(逐)(渐)(弱)(化)(。中)(央)(经)(济)(工)(作)(会)(议)(提)(出)(,“完)(善)(促)(进)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(平)(稳)(健)(康)(发)(展)(的)(长)(效)(机)(制)(,保)(持)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(调)(控)(政)(策)(连)(续)(性)(和)(稳)(定)(性)(”。短)(期)(强)(调)(控)(、反)(复)(收)(紧)(放)(松)(并)(不)(利)(于)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(健)(康)(发)(展)(,长)(效)(机)(制)(将)(使)(得)(房)(地)(产)(政)(策)(周)(期)(特)(点)(趋)(于)(弱)(化)(。
房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(的)(周)(期)(性)(还)(与)(许)(多)(经)(济)(因)(素)(有)(关)(,包)(括)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(、人)(均)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(、城)(镇)(化)(进)(程)(和)(人)(口)((数)(量)(,结)(构)(,迁)(移)()等)(。当)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(上)(行)(时)(,房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(增)(加)(投)(资)(,居)(民)(购)(房)(能)(力)(和)(意)(愿)(较)(高)(,房)(地)(产)(供)(给)(和)(需)(求)(都)(会)(上)(升)(;反)(之)(,经)(济)(下)(行)(时)(,房)(地)(产)(供)(需)(都)(会)(大)(幅)(下)(滑)(。人)(均)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(决)(定)(了)(居)(民)(消)(费)(能)(力)(,可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(的)(提)(高)(会)(刺)(激)(房)(地)(产)(需)(求)(增)(加)(。城)(镇)(化)(进)(程)(加)(快)(意)(味)(着)(城)(市)(规)(模)(的)(扩)(大)(、城)(镇)(人)(口)(的)(增)(加)(,会)(给)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(带)(来)(大)(量)(需)(求)(。从)(中)(长)(期)(来)(看)(,人)(口)(的)(数)(量)(多)(少)(、增)(长)(趋)(势)(、年)(龄)(结)(构)(变)(化)(直)(接)(决)(定)(房)(地)(产)(的)(总)(体)(需)(求)(。人)(口)(迁)(移)(则)(是)(不)(同)(区)(域)(的)(房)(地)(产)(供)(需)(状)(况)(差)(异)(较)(大)(的)(重)(要)(原)(因)(。宏)(观)(经)(济)(和)(人)(口)(变)(化)(内)(在)(的)(周)(期)(性)(使)(得)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(的)(供)(需)(也)(表)(现)(出)(较)(为)(明)(显)(的)(周)(期)(性)(特)(点)(。
1.3.3进)(入)(门)(槛)(低)(,竞)(争)(激)(烈)(
房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(进)(入)(门)(槛)(低)(,竞)(争)(激)(烈)(。房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(属)(于)(资)(金)(密)(集)(型)(行)(业)(,对)(技)(术)(要)(求)(不)(高)(,整)(体)(进)(入)(门)(槛)(较)(低)(。早)(些)(年)(,房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(利)(润)(率)(非)(常)(高)(,大)(量)(地)(方)(性)(中)(小)(型)(企)(业)(涌)(入)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(,这)(些)(企)(业)(可)(能)(自)(身)(的)(资)(金)(实)(力)(并)(不)(强)(,但)(能)(凭)(借)(地)(方)(资)(源)(优)(势)(拿)(地)(,宽)(松)(的)(银)(行)(信)(贷)(政)(策)(又)(能)(助)(企)(业)(维)(持)(高)(杠)(杆)(运)(作)(,因)(此)(,2012年)(以)(前)(国)(内)(房)(企)(数)(量)(快)(速)(增)(加)(,行)(业)(整)(体)(竞)(争)(形)(势)(较)(为)(激)(烈)(。
近)(几)(年)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(并)(购)(整)(合)(加)(速)(,行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(快)(速)(上)(升)(,龙)(头)(房)(企)(竞)(争)(更)(加)(激)(烈)(。2012年)(之)(后)(,房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(并)(购)(整)(合)(加)(速)(,房)(企)(数)(量)(保)(持)(大)(致)(稳)(定)(,行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(逐)(年)(上)(升)(。根)(据)(CRIC数)(据)(,2017年)(,我)(国)(TOP10房)(企)(集)(中)(度)(达)(24.1%,TOP30房)(企)(集)(中)(度)(近)(40%,TOP50集)(中)(度)(为)(45.9%。相)(比)(于)(2016年)(,TOP50房)(企)(各)(梯)(队)(销)(售)(金)(额)(集)(中)(度)(均)(有)(较)(大)(幅)(度)(的)(提)(升)(,其)(中)(TOP10-30集)(中)(度)(增)(幅)(最)(大)(,达)(到)(了)(3.6个)(百)(分)(点)(。TOP100房)(企)(中)(,销)(售)(额)(1000亿)(以)(上)(和)(500-1000亿)(的)(房)(企)(数)(量)(明)(显)(增)(加)(,两)(者)(合)(计)(由)(2015年)(的)(16家)(增)(加)(到)(了)(2017年)(的)(38家)(,而)(销)(售)(额)(200亿)(以)(下)(的)(房)(企)(数)(量)(急)(剧)(减)(少)(,2015年)(时)(共)(有)(51家)(,占)(据)(了)(半)(壁)(江)(山)(,到)(2017年)(却)(仅)(剩)(11家)(。以)(前)(许)(多)(中)(小)(型)(房)(企)(凭)(借)(自)(身)(得)(天)(独)(厚)(的)(一)(些)(优)(势)(,能)(倚)(靠)(各)(自)(特)(定)(区)(域)(发)(展)(,而)(近)(几)(年)(,一)(些)(房)(企)(不)(断)(扩)(展)(版)(图)(,进)(行)(全)(国)(性)(布)(局)(,成)(为)(规)(模)(庞)(大)(的)(大)(型)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(商)(。大)(型)(房)(企)(规)(模)(、资)(金)(和)(管)(理)(优)(势)(显)(著)(,综)(合)(实)(力)(雄)(厚)(,版)(图)(扩)(张)(必)(然)(会)(压)(缩)(中)(小)(型)(地)(方)(性)(房)(企)(生)(存)(空)(间)(,行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(迅)(速)(上)(升)(,龙)(头)(房)(企)(之)(间)(的)(竞)(争)(将)(会)(更)(加)(激)(烈)(。
1.3.4区)(域)(性)(明)(显)(
房)(地)(产)(是)(非)(贸)(易)(品)(,不)(能)(在)(区)(域)(之)(间)(自)(由)(流)(动)(,因)(此)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(的)(区)(域)(性)(特)(征)(明)(显)(。从)(房)(地)(产)(本)(身)(的)(特)(性)(来)(看)(,房)(地)(产)(不)(能)(在)(区)(域)(之)(间)(自)(由)(流)(动)(,房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(主)(要)(在)(哪)(些)(城)(市)(拿)(地)(建)(房)(,那)(么)(销)(售)(业)(绩)(就)(主)(要)(依)(赖)(于)(这)(些)(城)(市)(的)(发)(展)(状)(况)(。不)(同)(区)(域)(、不)(同)(城)(市)(的)(人)(口)(数)(量)(、土)(地)(供)(给)(、经)(济)(发)(展)(水)(平)(、基)(础)(设)(施)(建)(设)(完)(善)(程)(度)(、居)(民)(收)(入)(水)(平)(、政)(府)(调)(控)(态)(度)(等)(都)(相)(差)(甚)(远)(,因)(而)(各)(地)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(的)(供)(需)(状)(况)(和)(房)(价)(水)(平)(都)(不)(尽)(相)(同)(,这)(会)(对)(房)(企)(的)(盈)(利)(水)(平)(和)(持)(续)(发)(展)(产)(生)(重)(大)(影)(响)(。所)(以)(房)(企)(的)(经)(营)(区)(域)(是)(非)(常)(关)(键)(的)(因)(素)(,房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(行)(业)(的)(区)(域)(性)(特)(征)(十)(分)(明)(显)(。
近)(二)(十)(年)(来)(,我)(国)(的)(城)(镇)(化)(进)(程)(不)(断)(推)(进)(,城)(镇)(人)(口)(占)(总)(人)(口)(的)(比)(重)(从)(1995年)(的)(29.04%提)(高)(到)(了)(2017年)(的)(58.52%。一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(经)(济)(飞)(速)(发)(展)(,具)(有)(强)(烈)(的)(人)(口)(聚)(集)(效)(应)(。北)(上)(广)(深)(总)(常)(住)(人)(口)(占)(全)(国)(总)(人)(口)(比)(重)(呈)(现)(不)(断)(上)(升)(的)(趋)(势)(,尽)(管)(自)(2010年)(以)(来)(增)(长)(势)(头)(有)(所)(放)(缓)(。相)(比)(之)(下)(,三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(人)(口)(流)(失)(较)(为)(明)(显)(。一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(大)(量)(的)(人)(口)(流)(入)(带)(来)(了)(旺)(盛)(的)(住)(房)(需)(求)(,住)(房)(市)(场)(呈)(现)(出)(供)(不)(应)(求)(的)(格)(局)(。2015年)(至)(2017年)(中)(,一)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(增)(速)(远)(远)(高)(于)(二)(线)(城)(市)(和)(三)(线)(城)(市)(,17年)(下)(半)(年)(以)(来)(,在)(中)(央)(分)(类)(调)(控)(的)(政)(策)(下)(,一)(线)(城)(市)(的)(房)(价)(增)(速)(降)(至)(0左)(右)(,房)(价)(大)(致)(维)(持)(稳)(定)(。
2017年)(以)(来)(,中)(央)(政)(府)(对)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(一)(直)(坚)(持)(“分)(类)(调)(控)(、因)(城)(施)(策)(”的)(政)(策)(导)(向)(。2018年)(3月)(的)(政)(府)(工)(作)(报)(告)(提)(到)(,“坚)(持)(房)(子)(是)(用)(来)(住)(的)(、不)(是)(用)(来)(炒)(的)(定)(位)(,落)(实)(地)(方)(主)(体)(责)(任)(,继)(续)(实)(行)(差)(别)(化)(调)(控)(”。5月)(住)(建)(部)(《关)(于)(进)(一)(步)(做)(好)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(调)(控)(工)(作)(有)(关)(问)(题)(的)(通)(知)(》要)(求)(热)(点)(城)(市)(提)(高)(住)(房)(用)(地)(比)(例)(,推)(进)(供)(地)(主)(体)(多)(元)(化)(。2018年)(以)(来)(,各)(地)(区)(依)(然)(密)(集)(出)(台)(行)(政)(调)(控)(手)(段)(,一)(些)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(较)(快)(的)(三)(四)(线)(地)(区)(也)(开)(始)(加)(码)(调)(控)(,如)(沈)(阳)(、海)(南)(等)(。与)(往)(年)(调)(控)(有)(所)(不)(同)(的)(是)(,第)(一)(,去)(年)(以)(来)(的)(楼)(市)(调)(控)(格)(外)(强)(调)(“分)(类)(调)(控)(、差)(别)(化)(调)(控)(”,不)(同)(城)(市)(甚)(至)(是)(同)(一)(城)(市)(不)(同)(区)(县)(的)(具)(体)(调)(控)(措)(施)(都)(各)(不)(相)(同)(,楼)(市)(调)(控)(的)(区)(域)(性)(特)(征)(十)(分)(明)(显)(。第)(二)(,去)(年)(以)(来)(的)(行)(政)(调)(控)(手)(段)(同)(时)(还)(伴)(随)(着)(人)(才)(新)(政)(、棚)(户)(改)(造)(等)(对)(楼)(市)(有)(利)(的)(政)(策)(,政)(策)(整)(体)(对)(不)(同)(省)(份)(城)(市)(、不)(同)(购)(房)(需)(求)(的)(人)(群)(形)(成)(了)(差)(异)(化)(的)(影)(响)(。一)(方)(面)(,自)(2017年)(西)(安)(、成)(都)(等)(地)(发)(布)(人)(才)(新)(政)(以)(来)(,天)(津)(、海)(南)(、山)(东)(等)(城)(市)(与)(省)(份)(也)(在)(2018年)(发)(布)(了)(人)(才)(落)(户)(或)(人)(才)(补)(贴)(政)(策)(,对)(于)(这)(些)(二)(三)(线)(城)(市)(的)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(具)(有)(拉)(动)(作)(用)(,但)(在)(5月)(住)(建)(部)(约)(谈)(后)(,成)(都)(、哈)(尔)(滨)(、西)(安)(等)(城)(市)(又)(陆)(续)(出)(台)(了)(限)(购)(措)(施)(。另)(一)(方)(面)(,虽)(然)(相)(较)(去)(年)(,2018年)(的)(棚)(改)(目)(标)(有)(所)(降)(低)(至)(580万)(套)(,但)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(的)(棚)(改)(套)(数)(并)(未)(显)(著)(下)(降)(,甘)(肃)(、新)(疆)(等)(省)(份)(甚)(至)(有)(所)(提)(高)(,这)(些)(地)(方)(的)(楼)(市)(也)(能)(够)(继)(续)(从)(货)(币)(化)(棚)(改)(进)(程)(中)(受)(益)(。
地)(方)(政)(府)(是)(土)(地)(的)(唯)(一)(供)(给)(方)(,对)(土)(地)(拥)(有)(很)(强)(的)(垄)(断)(能)(力)(。在)(不)(同)(的)(城)(市)(,地)(方)(政)(府)(对)(土)(地)(供)(应)(量)(和)(土)(地)(出)(让)(价)(格)(的)(把)(控)(程)(度)(并)(不)(一)(样)(。比)(如)(,对)(于)(某)(些)(财)(政)(收)(入)(差)(、债)(务)(负)(担)(重)(的)(城)(市)(,由)(于)(卖)(地)(收)(入)(以)(及)(相)(关)(的)(房)(地)(产)(税)(费)(收)(入)(是)(地)(方)(政)(府)(的)(重)(要)(收)(入)(来)(源)(,那)(么)(地)(方)(政)(府)(可)(能)(就)(会)(有)(强)(烈)(的)(动)(机)(去)(控)(制)(土)(地)(供)(给)(量)(、抬)(高)(土)(地)(价)(格)(,土)(地)(价)(格)(最)(终)(传)(导)(至)(房)(价)(,对)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(影)(响)(巨)(大)(。
1.3.5成)(本)(和)(收)(入)(确)(认)(的)(特)(殊)(性)(
房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(由)(于)(会)(计)(准)(则)(的)(规)(定)(,在)(成)(本)(和)(收)(入)(确)(认)(方)(面)(比)(较)(特)(殊)(。房)(企)(预)(售)(楼)(盘)(收)(到)(的)(定)(金)(、首)(付)(款)(以)(及)(按)(揭)(贷)(款)(等)(都)(必)(须)(先)(计)(入)(预)(收)(账)(款)(科)(目)(,只)(有)(等)(到)(下)(面)(4个)(条)(件)(同)(时)(满)(足)(时)(,才)(能)(由)(预)(收)(账)(款)(结)(转)(至)(营)(业)(收)(入)(:1、工)(程)(已)(经)(竣)(工)(,并)(且)(验)(收)(合)(格)(,符)(合)(销)(售)(合)(同)(约)(定)(的)(交)(付)(条)(件)(;2、已)(通)(知)(买)(方)(接)(收)(房)(屋)(,并)(且)(将)(结)(算)(账)(单)(提)(交)(买)(方)(取)(得)(买)(方)(认)(可)(;3、与)(实)(测)(面)(积)(相)(对)(应)(的)(房)(款)(已)(经)(确)(定)(,发)(票)(开)(出)(,收)(到)(价)(款)(或)(者)(取)(得)(支)(付)(款)(的)(承)(诺)(函)(;4、商)(品)(房)(屋)(的)(成)(本)(已)(经)(实)(际)(发)(生)(,并)(且)(可)(以)(可)(靠)(计)(量)(,公)(共)(配)(套)(设)(施)(成)(本)(支)(出)(可)(以)(合)(理)(预)(估)(。此)(外)(,又)(由)(于)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(工)(程)(项)(目)(建)(造)(周)(期)(长)(,会)(计)(上)(确)(认)(收)(入)(的)(时)(点)(要)(远)(远)(晚)(于)(商)(品)(房)(预)(售)(计)(入)(业)(绩)(的)(时)(点)(。因)(此)(,房)(企)(利)(润)(表)(中)(的)(营)(业)(收)(入)(项)(目)(通)(常)(反)(映)(的)(是)(前)(期)(而)(不)(是)(当)(期)(的)(销)(售)(业)(绩)(,时)(间)(上)(存)(在)(滞)(后)(性)(。基)(于)(成)(本)(和)(收)(入)(配)(比)(的)(会)(计)(原)(则)(,房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(在)(确)(认)(收)(入)(时)(,才)(能)(结)(转)(相)(应)(成)(本)(。具)(体)(来)(说)(,当)(商)(品)(房)(竣)(工)(验)(收)(合)(格)(达)(到)(预)(定)(可)(使)(用)(状)(态)(时)(,将)(开)(发)(成)(本)(结)(转)(至)(开)(发)(产)(品)(科)(目)(。确)(认)(收)(入)(的)(同)(时)(,再)(按)(照)(已)(售)(面)(积)(比)(例)(将)(开)(发)(产)(品)(结)(转)(至)(主)(营)(业)(务)(成)(本)(。因)(此)(,主)(营)(业)(务)(成)(本)(科)(目)(也)(存)(在)(滞)(后)(性)(,当)(期)(结)(转)(的)(主)(营)(业)(务)(成)(本)(主)(要)(对)(应)(于)(前)(期)(投)(入)(的)(存)(货)(,不)(能)(反)(映)(当)(期)(存)(货)(的)(消)(耗)(情)(况)(。
房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(的)(销)(售)(数)(据)(在)(统)(计)(口)(径)(方)(面)(也)(比)(较)(特)(殊)(。销)(售)(统)(计)(口)(径)(的)(差)(异)(主)(要)(体)(现)(在)(对)(合)(作)(开)(发)(项)(目)(业)(绩)(的)(归)(属)(计)(量)(上)(。比)(如)(,就)(销)(售)(金)(额)(而)(言)(,目)(前)(一)(般)(包)(括)(三)(种)(口)(径)(:第)(一)(种)(,不)(考)(虑)(权)(益)(占)(比)(、是)(否)(操)(盘)(并)(表)(,参)(与)(的)(房)(企)(都)(将)(其)(按)(100%的)(销)(售)(额)(计)(入)(自)(己)(的)(业)(绩)(;第)(二)(种)(,只)(有)(项)(目)(操)(盘)(方)(将)(其)(按)(100%销)(售)(额)(计)(入)(自)(己)(的)(业)(绩)(,其)(余)(股)(东)(都)(不)(计)(入)(业)(绩)(;第)(三)(种)(,合)(作)(开)(发)(项)(目)(的)(股)(东)(按)(各)(自)(的)(权)(益)(占)(比)(计)(算)(归)(属)(于)(自)(己)(的)(销)(售)(业)(绩)(。同)(样)(地)(,不)(仅)(是)(销)(售)(金)(额)(,销)(售)(面)(积)(、竣)(工)(面)(积)(也)(与)(之)(类)(似)(,具)(有)(这)(三)(种)(统)(计)(口)(径)(。从)(国)(内)(主)(流)(房)(地)(产)(研)(究)(机)(构)(CRIC来)(看)(,CRIC公)(布)(的)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(销)(售)(排)(行)(榜)(包)(括)(销)(售)(流)(量)(榜)(和)(销)(售)(权)(益)(榜)(。销)(售)(流)(量)(榜)(的)(统)(计)(口)(径)(是)(房)(企)(操)(盘)(口)(径)(,合)(作)(项)(目)(不)(做)(重)(复)(计)(算)(;销)(售)(权)(益)(榜)(上)(的)(统)(计)(口)(径)(是)(权)(益)(口)(径)(,是)(企)(业)(投)(资)(的)(所)(有)(房)(地)(产)(项)(目)(按)(权)(益)(份)(额)(计)(算)(的)(总)(销)(量)(。
1.4
房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(分)(析)(框)(架)(
1.4.1企)(业)(属)(性)(和)(公)(司)(治)(理)(
所)(有)(制)(属)(性)(是)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(的)(重)(要)(特)(性)(,房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(中)(的)(国)(企)(占)(据)(更)(多)(优)(势)(。原)(因)(主)(要)(有)(三)(点)(,其)(一)(,相)(比)(于)(民)(企)(,国)(有)(房)(企)(的)(母)(公)(司)(能)(给)(予)(其)(极)(大)(的)(资)(金)(支)(持)(,这)(对)(于)(融)(资)(需)(求)(旺)(盛)(的)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(来)(说)(是)(十)(分)(重)(要)(的)(;其)(二)(,房)(企)(拥)(有)(国)(有)(大)(股)(东)(的)(信)(用)(背)(书)(,银)(行)(信)(贷)(政)(策)(一)(般)(会)(向)(国)(有)(企)(业)(有)(所)(倾)(斜)(,民)(营)(房)(企)(从)(银)(行)(获)(得)(信)(贷)(支)(持)(的)(条)(件)(相)(对)(更)(为)(苛)(刻)(;其)(三)(,国)(企)(和)(地)(方)(政)(府)(关)(系)(密)(切)(,拿)(地)(拿)(项)(目)(更)(有)(优)(势)(。
上)(市)(房)(企)(融)(资)(渠)(道)(更)(加)(多)(元)(,治)(理)(结)(构)(更)(规)(范)(完)(善)(。相)(比)(于)(非)(上)(市)(公)(司)(,上)(市)(公)(司)(能)(采)(用)(定)(向)(增)(发)(等)(股)(权)(融)(资)(手)(段)(,融)(资)(渠)(道)(更)(加)(多)(元)(化)(,特)(别)(是)(当)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(处)(于)(政)(策)(紧)(缩)(阶)(段)(时)(,银)(行)(信)(贷)(额)(度)(收)(紧)(,债)(券)(发)(行)(和)(其)(他)(非)(标)(债)(权)(融)(资)(渠)(道)(受)(限)(且)(融)(资)(成)(本)(上)(行)(,此)(时)(股)(权)(融)(资)(便)(凸)(显)(出)(其)(便)(利)(性)(。此)(外)(,上)(市)(公)(司)(治)(理)(结)(构)(更)(加)(健)(全)(,管)(理)(能)(力)(一)(般)(要)(优)(于)(非)(上)(市)(公)(司)(。
1.4.2企)(业)(规)(模)(和)(地)(域)(布)(局)(
房)(企)(的)(规)(模)(不)(仅)(代)(表)(了)(企)(业)(目)(前)(的)(经)(营)(状)(况)(和)(市)(场)(地)(位)(,而)(且)(在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(决)(定)(了)(其)(未)(来)(的)(发)(展)(空)(间)(。在)(行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(明)(显)(快)(速)(提)(升)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,未)(来)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(的)(集)(中)(度)(还)(会)(进)(一)(步)(上)(升)(。规)(模)(房)(企)(依)(靠)(自)(身)(的)(资)(金)(实)(力)(、品)(牌)(优)(势)(和)(管)(理)(能)(力)(,将)(会)(轻)(而)(易)(举)(地)(获)(得)(更)(多)(优)(质)(项)(目)(,抢)(占)(更)(大)(市)(场)(份)(额)(。而)(中)(小)(型)(房)(企)(想)(要)(跟)(规)(模)(房)(企)(抢)(夺)(项)(目)(资)(源)(扩)(张)(规)(模)(会)(更)(加)(艰)(辛)(,因)(为)(目)(前)(的)(融)(资)(环)(境)(跟)(以)(前)(已)(大)(不)(相)(同)(。2016年)(以)(前)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(各)(种)(政)(策)(偏)(宽)(松)(,房)(企)(融)(资)(渠)(道)(多)(元)(且)(成)(本)(低)(廉)(,当)(时)(许)(多)(中)(小)(型)(房)(企)(,比)(如)(金)(茂)(、泰)(禾)(、融)(信)(等)(,便)(是)(凭)(借)(这)(种)(融)(资)(便)(利)(,大)(举)(负)(债)(高)(杠)(杆)(,激)(进)(拿)(地)(抢)(项)(目)(,强)(势)(扩)(张)(得)(以)(实)(现)(弯)(道)(超)(车)(。但)(是)(2016年)(以)(后)(,房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(全)(方)(位)(政)(策)(收)(紧)(以)(及)(持)(续)(去)(杠)(杆)(,这)(种)(机)(会)(对)(于)(中)(小)(型)(房)(企)(来)(说)(便)(很)(难)(再)(有)(了)(。
要)(衡)(量)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(的)(规)(模)(,首)(先)(我)(们)(选)(取)(了)(总)(资)(产)(指)(标)(,总)(资)(产)(最)(能)(直)(接)(反)(映)(房)(企)(的)(规)(模)(大)(小)(和)(在)(行)(业)(中)(的)(地)(位)(。此)(外)(,对)(于)(房)(企)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(,相)(对)(于)(营)(业)(收)(入)(而)(言)(,销)(售)(金)(额)(是)(个)(更)(为)(合)(理)(的)(指)(标)(。其)(原)(因)(有)(两)(点)(:第)(一)(,正)(如)(前)(面)(所)(提)(到)(的)(,房)(企)(利)(润)(表)(中)(的)(营)(业)(收)(入)(项)(目)(存)(在)(时)(间)(滞)(后)(性)(问)(题)(,若)(要)(考)(察)(房)(企)(当)(期)(业)(绩)(,销)(售)(金)(额)(这)(个)(指)(标)(反)(映)(更)(为)(及)(时)(;第)(二)(,营)(业)(收)(入)(在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(具)(有)(可)(调)(节)(性)(,因)(为)(实)(际)(操)(作)(中)(,各)(家)(房)(企)(确)(认)(收)(入)(的)(条)(件)(各)(不)(完)(全)(相)(同)(,没)(有)(统)(一)(的)(标)(准)(,有)(的)(企)(业)(以)(发)(出)(交)(房)(通)(知)(书)(为)(确)(认)(收)(入)(时)(点)(,有)(的)(则)(以)(领)(取)(钥)(匙)(为)(判)(断)(标)(准)(,这)(就)(给)(了)(房)(企)(调)(节)(报)(表)(营)(业)(收)(入)(项)(目)(的)(空)(间)(,企)(业)(可)(能)(会)(出)(于)(各)(种)(原)(因)(故)(意)(推)(迟)(结)(转)(或)(者)(提)(前)(结)(转)(营)(业)(收)(入)(,这)(样)(营)(业)(收)(入)(指)(标)(的)(准)(确)(性)(就)(并)(不)(高)(。但)(是)(实)(际)(中)(,由)(于)(各)(家)(房)(企)(销)(售)(金)(额)(的)(统)(计)(口)(径)(不)(一)(致)(、披)(露)(销)(售)(数)(据)(的)(时)(间)(不)(统)(一)(,我)(们)(最)(终)(只)(能)(采)(取)(营)(业)(收)(入)(指)(标)(。
房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(经)(营)(项)(目)(的)(地)(域)(布)(局)(是)(否)(合)(理)(可)(以)(从)(两)(个)(维)(度)(来)(考)(察)(:一)(是)(地)(域)(布)(局)(多)(元)(化)(,二)(是)(一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(布)(局)(。地)(域)(布)(局)(多)(元)(化)(用)(商)(品)(房)(销)(售)(分)(布)(的)(城)(市)(数)(量)(来)(衡)(量)(。一)(方)(面)(,项)(目)(分)(布)(城)(市)(数)(量)(反)(映)(了)(房)(企)(在)(全)(国)(范)(围)(综)(合)(布)(局)(、开)(拓)(扩)(张)(的)(能)(力)(。在)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(提)(升)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,强)(者)(恒)(强)(,有)(能)(力)(进)(入)(更)(多)(城)(市)(的)(房)(企)(未)(来)(将)(会)(有)(更)(深)(的)(拓)(展)(空)(间)(,能)(攫)(取)(更)(大)(的)(市)(场)(份)(额)(。另)(一)(方)(面)(,国)(内)(各)(区)(域)(各)(城)(市)(的)(房)(价)(水)(平)(、收)(入)(水)(平)(、居)(民)(购)(房)(意)(愿)(和)(政)(府)(调)(控)(态)(度)(等)(差)(异)(显)(著)(,只)(将)(业)(务)(范)(围)(局)(限)(在)(某)(个)(小)(区)(域)(会)(给)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(带)(来)(很)(大)(的)(经)(营)(风)(险)(,而)(地)(域)(布)(局)(多)(元)(化)(能)(在)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(分)(散)(风)(险)(。对)(于)(一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(布)(局)(情)(况)(,我)(们)(采)(用)(一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(的)(销)(售)(额)(占)(总)(销)(售)(额)(比)(重)(这)(个)(指)(标)(来)(度)(量)(。我)(们)(认)(为)(重)(心)(偏)(向)(一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(的)(房)(企)(相)(对)(更)(有)(优)(势)(,虽)(然)(短)(期)(来)(看)(,一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(房)(地)(产)(目)(前)(受)(到)(政)(府)(严)(厉)(调)(控)(,量)(价)(齐)(跌)(行)(业)(表)(现)(不)(景)(气)(,但)(是)(从)(中)(长)(期)(角)(度)(来)(说)(,相)(比)(于)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(,一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(房)(地)(产)(的)(需)(求)(支)(撑)(更)(强)(,去)(化)(速)(度)(相)(对)(较)(快)(,项)(目)(利)(润)(更)(可)(观)(。
1.4.3营)(运)(能)(力)(、盈)(利)(能)(力)(和)(成)(长)(性)(
营)(运)(能)(力)(主)(要)(考)(察)(房)(企)(的)(存)(货)(周)(转)(效)(率)(。房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(属)(于)(重)(资)(产)(行)(业)(,负)(债)(水)(平)(高)(,所)(以)(对)(企)(业)(的)(资)(产)(周)(转)(效)(率)(有)(很)(高)(的)(要)(求)(。房)(企)(的)(资)(产)(中)(绝)(大)(部)(分)(,像)(土)(地)(储)(备)(、未)(完)(工)(的)(商)(品)(房)(项)(目)(等)(都)(属)(于)(存)(货)(。衡)(量)(房)(企)(的)(存)(货)(周)(转)(速)(度)(,最)(好)(采)(用)(销)(售)(金)(额)(/存)(货)(指)(标)(,因)(为)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(的)(营)(业)(成)(本)(项)(目)(存)(在)(严)(重)(的)(滞)(后)(性)(,传)(统)(的)(存)(货)(周)(转)(率)((营)(业)(成)(本)(/存)(货)()指)(标)(不)(能)(及)(时)(反)(映)(当)(期)(存)(货)(的)(周)(转)(情)(况)(。但)(是)(实)(际)(中)(,同)(样)(出)(于)(统)(计)(口)(径)(和)(披)(露)(时)(间)(原)(因)(,我)(们)(最)(终)(只)(能)(选)(用)(营)(业)(成)(本)(/存)(货)(来)(考)(察)(存)(货)(周)(转)(率)(。此)(外)(,房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(的)(主)(营)(业)(务)(是)(开)(发)(和)(销)(售)(商)(品)(房)(,销)(售)(竣)(工)(面)(积)(比)(率)(反)(映)(了)(企)(业)(的)(去)(化)(速)(度)(,也)(是)(营)(运)(能)(力)(的)(表)(征)(。
盈)(利)(是)(偿)(债)(的)(保)(障)(,是)(企)(业)(扩)(张)(的)(基)(础)(。我)(们)(用)(毛)(利)(率)(和)(销)(售)(均)(价)(/上)(一)(年)(拿)(地)(楼)(面)(均)(价)(两)(个)(指)(标)(来)(考)(察)(企)(业)(的)(盈)(利)(能)(力)(。毛)(利)(率)(是)(企)(业)(经)(营)(业)(务)(考)(虑)(成)(本)(之)(后)(的)(直)(接)(盈)(利)(空)(间)(,通)(常)(代)(表)(了)(企)(业)(的)(持)(续)(竞)(争)(优)(势)(。房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(最)(核)(心)(的)(收)(入)(来)(源)(是)(销)(售)(商)(品)(房)(,最)(主)(要)(的)(成)(本)(就)(是)(拿)(地)(支)(出)(,假)(设)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(拿)(地)(一)(年)(以)(后)(开)(始)(预)(售)(,本)(年)(销)(售)(均)(价)(/上)(一)(年)(新)(增)(土)(地)(储)(备)(楼)(面)(均)(价)(则)(反)(映)(了)(企)(业)(商)(品)(房)(项)(目)(的)(获)(利)(水)(平)(。
成)(长)(性)(意)(味)(着)(企)(业)(未)(来)(的)(发)(展)(潜)(力)(和)(增)(长)(空)(间)(。对)(比)(普)(通)(企)(业)(的)(营)(业)(收)(入)(增)(长)(率)(指)(标)(,我)(们)(用)(销)(售)(金)(额)(增)(长)(率)(来)(衡)(量)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(的)(经)(营)(增)(速)(。此)(外)(,房)(企)(未)(来)(几)(年)(内)(的)(销)(售)(业)(绩)(能)(达)(到)(多)(大)(规)(模)(,现)(有)(的)(土)(地)(储)(备)(量)(是)(一)(个)(很)(重)(要)(的)(因)(素)(。假)(设)(企)(业)(未)(来)(几)(年)(的)(售)(房)(速)(度)(基)(本)(保)(持)(不)(变)(,用)(期)(末)(土)(地)(储)(备)(面)(积)(/当)(期)(销)(售)(面)(积)(可)(以)(大)(致)(估)(计)(出)(,房)(企)(现)(存)(的)(土)(地)(储)(备)(能)(支)(撑)(后)(续)(项)(目)(开)(发)(销)(售)(的)(时)(间)(。当)(这)(个)(指)(标)(值)(较)(高)(时)(,表)(明)(企)(业)(土)(地)(储)(备)(充)(足)(,能)(为)(未)(来)(一)(段)(时)(期)(内)(销)(售)(业)(绩)(的)(持)(续)(提)(供)(保)(障)(。但)(是)(这)(个)(值)(并)(不)(是)(越)(高)(越)(好)(,首)(先)(,土)(地)(储)(备)(过)(多)(,而)(项)(目)(开)(发)(销)(售)(速)(度)(跟)(不)(上)(,那)(么)(很)(可)(能)(会)(导)(致)(大)(量)(土)(地)(闲)(置)(,企)(业)(周)(转)(效)(率)(降)(低)(,容)(易)(造)(成)(资)(金)(链)(紧)(张)(,债)(务)(偿)(还)(出)(现)(困)(难)(;其)(次)(,当)(房)(地)(产)(周)(期)(转)(而)(下)(行)(时)(,房)(价)(低)(迷)(市)(场)(不)(景)(气)(,企)(业)(若)(选)(择)(大)(幅)(降)(价)(销)(售)(,很)(可)(能)(会)(造)(成)(亏)(损)(,但)(若)(选)(择)(暂)(停)(项)(目)(开)(发)(,又)(会)(面)(临)(周)(转)(问)(题)(;最)(后)(,根)(据)(我)(国)(的)(《闲)(置)(土)(地)(处)(置)(办)(法)(》,企)(业)(闲)(置)(的)(土)(地)(可)(能)(会)(被)(征)(收)(土)(地)(闲)(置)(费)(或)(者)(被)(无)(偿)(收)(回)(。
1.4.4杠)(杆)(水)(平)(、偿)(债)(能)(力)(和)(现)(金)(流)(
杠)(杆)(水)(平)(反)(映)(房)(企)(的)(债)(务)(负)(担)(。房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(在)(拿)(地)(、施)(工)(建)(造)(各)(个)(环)(节)(都)(需)(要)(大)(量)(资)(金)(投)(入)(,企)(业)(通)(常)(有)(息)(债)(务)(规)(模)(大)(,杠)(杆)(率)(高)(。但)(是)(在)(房)(企)(负)(债)(结)(构)(中)(,预)(售)(商)(品)(房)(形)(成)(的)(预)(收)(账)(款)(所)(占)(比)(重)(较)(高)(,而)(预)(收)(账)(款)(是)(不)(用)(现)(金)(偿)(还)(的)(,所)(以)(用)(剔)(除)(预)(收)(账)(款)(后)(的)(资)(产)(负)(债)(率)(能)(更)(加)(准)(确)(地)(度)(量)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(的)(杠)(杆)(水)(平)(。
偿)(债)(能)(力)(是)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(信)(用)(风)(险)(评)(价)(中)(最)(为)(重)(要)(的)(一)(项)(指)(标)(。偿)(债)(能)(力)(可)(以)(从)(短)(期)(偿)(债)(能)(力)(和)(长)(期)(偿)(债)(能)(力)(两)(方)(面)(来)(看)(。
短)(期)(偿)(债)(能)(力)(主)(要)(考)(察)(企)(业)(用)(流)(动)(资)(产)(偿)(付)(日)(常)(流)(动)(负)(债)(的)(实)(力)(。流)(动)(资)(产)(和)(速)(动)(资)(产)(的)(区)(别)(主)(要)(在)(于)(存)(货)(,房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(的)(存)(货)(多)(为)(土)(地)(储)(备)(、建)(造)(中)(的)(工)(程)(项)(目)(,存)(货)(变)(现)(能)(力)(较)(差)(,因)(此)(流)(动)(比)(率)(实)(际)(意)(义)(不)(大)(,速)(动)(比)(率)(更)(有)(参)(考)(价)(值)(。从)(现)(金)(流)(的)(角)(度)(来)(看)(,销)(售)(商)(品)(及)(提)(供)(劳)(务)(收)(到)(的)(现)(金)(是)(企)(业)(偿)(还)(流)(动)(负)(债)(最)(直)(接)(的)(来)(源)(和)(保)(证)(。另)(外)(考)(虑)(到)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(流)(动)(负)(债)(中)(的)(预)(收)(账)(款)(无)(需)(现)(金)(偿)(还)(,最)(终)(我)(们)(采)(用)(速)(动)(资)(产)(/(流)(动)(负)(债)(-预)(收)(账)(款)()、销)(售)(商)(品)(及)(提)(供)(劳)(务)(收)(到)(的)(现)(金)(/(流)(动)(负)(债)(-预)(收)(账)(款)()这)(两)(个)(指)(标)(来)(度)(量)(房)(企)(的)(短)(期)(偿)(债)(能)(力)(。
长)(期)(偿)(债)(能)(力)(是)(企)(业)(按)(时)(偿)(付)(其)(所)(有)(负)(债)(的)(能)(力)(。我)(们)(选)(取)(全)(部)(债)(务)(/EBITDA和)(EBITDA利)(息)(保)(障)(倍)(数)(两)(个)(指)(标)(,前)(者)(反)(映)(了)(企)(业)(息)(税)(折)(旧)(及)(摊)(销)(前)(创)(造)(的)(利)(润)(对)(其)(全)(部)(债)(务)(的)(偿)(还)(保)(障)(能)(力)(,后)(者)(则)(是)(该)(利)(润)(对)(企)(业)(费)(用)(化)(和)(资)(本)(化)(的)(全)(部)(利)(息)(的)(覆)(盖)(程)(度)(。
现)(金)(流)(是)(维)(持)(企)(业)(正)(常)(周)(转)(的)(关)(键)(因)(素)(。通)(常)(来)(说)(,稳)(定)(的)(现)(金)(净)(流)(入)(是)(企)(业)(持)(续)(经)(营)(的)(基)(础)(,特)(别)(是)(对)(于)(债)(务)(负)(担)(重)(的)(企)(业)(,更)(需)(要)(保)(持)(良)(好)(的)(流)(动)(性)(。评)(价)(企)(业)(的)(现)(金)(流)(状)(况)(,一)(般)(比)(较)(关)(注)(经)(营)(活)(动)(净)(现)(金)(流)(量)(这)(项)(指)(标)(。但)(是)(对)(于)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(,这)(个)(指)(标)(却)(并)(不)(合)(适)(,因)(为)(房)(企)(的)(房)(地)(产)(项)(目)(时)(间)(跨)(度)(较)(长)(,土)(地)(购)(置)(、销)(售)(回)(款)(、固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(等)(活)(动)(通)(常)(存)(在)(时)(间)(错)(配)(,导)(致)(每)(年)(的)(现)(金)(支)(出)(和)(流)(入)(不)(稳)(定)(、不)(匹)(配)(。所)(以)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(的)(经)(营)(活)(动)(净)(现)(金)(流)(波)(动)(性)(大)(、时)(间)(上)(分)(布)(不)(均)(匀)(,不)(是)(适)(宜)(的)(考)(察)(指)(标)(。我)(们)(选)(择)(采)(用)(销)(售)(商)(品)(及)(提)(供)(劳)(务)(收)(到)(的)(现)(金)(/销)(售)(金)(额)(这)(项)(指)(标)(,以)(此)(评)(价)(房)(企)(销)(售)(商)(品)(房)(的)(现)(金)(回)(流)(情)(况)(。
二)(、房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(行)(业)(评)(级)(及)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(计)(算)(
2.1
构)(建)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(行)(业)(信)(用)(评)(级)(体)(系)(
根)(据)(前)(面)(的)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(企)(业)(分)(析)(框)(架)(,我)(们)(搭)(建)(了)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(行)(业)(信)(用)(评)(级)(系)(统)(,信)(用)(评)(级)(指)(标)(分)(为)(定)(性)(指)(标)(和)(定)(量)(指)(标)(两)(部)(分)(,定)(性)(指)(标)(占)(比)(20%,包)(括)(企)(业)(属)(性)(、公)(司)(治)(理)(和)(地)(域)(布)(局)(;定)(量)(指)(标)(占)(比)(80%,包)(括)(企)(业)(规)(模)(、营)(运)(能)(力)(、盈)(利)(能)(力)(、成)(长)(性)(、杠)(杆)(水)(平)(、偿)(债)(能)(力)(和)(现)(金)(流)(。定)(性)(指)(标)(中)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(企)(业)(所)(有)(制)(属)(性)(和)(地)(域)(布)(局)(因)(素)(最)(重)(要)(,各)(赋)(予)(40%的)(一)(级)(权)(重)(,公)(司)(治)(理)(指)(标)(赋)(予)(20%的)(权)(重)(;定)(量)(指)(标)(中)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(偿)(债)(能)(力)(最)(关)(键)(,赋)(予)(40%的)(一)(级)(权)(重)(,企)(业)(规)(模)(也)(较)(为)(重)(要)(,赋)(予)(20%的)(权)(重)(,赋)(予)(营)(运)(能)(力)(10%的)(权)(重)(,盈)(利)(能)(力)(、杠)(杆)(水)(平)(和)(现)(金)(流)(各)(8%的)(权)(重)(,成)(长)(性)(6%的)(权)(重)(。具)(体)(如)(下)(表)(所)(示)(:
2.2
样)(本)(企)(业)(主)(体)(打)(分)(结)(果)(
我)(们)(的)(样)(本)(选)(取)(范)(围)(是)(,发)(行)(主)(体)(评)(级)(为)(AAA的)(房)(企)(中)(,以)(商)(品)(房)(开)(发)(销)(售)(为)(主)(营)(业)(务)((商)(品)(房)(开)(发)(的)(营)(业)(收)(入)(占)(比)(超)(过)(50%)的)(非)(城)(投)(发)(债)(企)(业)(,最)(终)(样)(本)(数)(量)(为)(20家)(。我)(们)(先)(根)(据)(各)(单)(项)(指)(标)(对)(企)(业)(打)(分)(,然)(后)(将)(各)(项)(得)(分)(得)(分)(加)(权)(平)(均)(,计)(算)(发)(债)(主)(体)(的)(综)(合)(评)(分)(,并)(给)(出)(排)(序)(。综)(合)(得)(分)(最)(高)(的)(是)(保)(利)(房)(地)(产)((集)(团)()股)(份)(有)(限)(公)(司)(,其)(定)(性)(指)(标)(得)(分)(排)(名)(第)(一)(,定)(量)(指)(标)(得)(分)(排)(名)(第)(三)(。综)(合)(得)(分)(最)(低)(的)(是)(中)(国)(铁)(建)(房)(地)(产)(集)(团)(有)(限)(公)(司)(,其)(定)(性)(得)(分)(排)(名)(第)(十)(,定)(量)(得)(分)(排)(名)(十)(九)(。
2.3
样)(本)(企)(业)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(计)(算)(
投)(资)(理)(论)(中)(夏)(普)(比)(率)((SharpeRatio)常)(被)(用)(以)(衡)(量)(金)(融)(资)(产)(的)(绩)(效)(表)(现)(,即)(回)(报)(相)(对)(于)(风)(险)(的)(比)(例)(。该)(比)(率)(代)(表)(投)(资)(人)(每)(多)(承)(担)(一)(分)(风)(险)(,可)(以)(拿)(到)(几)(分)(报)(酬)(,这)(个)(比)(例)(越)(高)(,投)(资)(组)(合)(越)(佳)(,其)(公)(式)(是)(:
其)(中)(E(Rp)指)(投)(资)(组)(合)(预)(期)(报)(酬)(率)(,Rf指)(无)(风)(险)(利)(率)(,σp指)(投)(资)(组)(合)(的)(标)(准)(差)(,分)(子)(代)(表)(风)(险)(回)(报)((因)(承)(担)(风)(险)(而)(获)(得)(的)(回)(报)(),分)(母)(代)(表)(风)(险)(大)(小)(。值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(这)(里)(的)(风)(险)(应)(该)(包)(含)(所)(有)(的)(风)(险)(,而)(所)(有)(的)(风)(险)(都)(能)(反)(映)(在)(收)(益)(率)(的)(波)(动)(中)(。
根)(据)(信)(用)(债)(隐)(含)(评)(级)(得)(分)(和)(信)(用)(债)(信)(评)(得)(分)(可)(以)(构)(造)(信)(用)(债)(信)(用)(风)(险)(的)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(。信)(用)(债)(的)(风)(险)(就)(是)(信)(用)(债)(收)(益)(率)(波)(动)(的)(风)(险)(,波)(动)(主)(要)(来)(自)(于)(信)(用)(风)(险)(和)(流)(动)(性)(风)(险)(。流)(动)(性)(的)(风)(险)(的)(差)(异)(和)(期)(限)(、信)(用)(风)(险)(、募)(集)(方)(式)(等)(都)(有)(关)(系)(。信)(用)(风)(险)(则)(主)(要)(可)(以)(用)(信)(用)(评)(级)(来)(衡)(量)(,更)(细)(致)(一)(点)(可)(以)(用)(信)(评)(得)(分)(来)(衡)(量)(。因)(此)(如)(果)(流)(动)(性)(风)(险)(差)(异)(不)(大)(,信)(用)(债)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(中)(的)(分)(母)(就)(可)(以)(用)(信)(评)(打)(分)(的)(倒)(数)((信)(评)(打)(分)(是)(对)(信)(用)(债)(安)(全)(度)(的)(衡)(量)(,分)(值)(越)(高)(,违)(约)(风)(险)(越)(低)(,其)(倒)(数)(可)(视)(为)(违)(约)(风)(险)(的)(大)(小)(,即)(信)(评)(打)(分)(的)(倒)(数)(越)(大)(债)(券)(违)(约)(风)(险)(越)(大)()。至)(于)(信)(用)(债)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(的)(分)(子)(可)(以)(用)(隐)(含)(评)(级)(得)(分)(,理)(由)(是)(:信)(用)(债)(信)(用)(利)(差)(即)(是)(信)(用)(债)(到)(期)(收)(益)(率)(与)(同)(期)(限)(无)(风)(险)(利)(率)(之)(差)(,契)(合)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(中)(超)(额)(回)(报)(的)(概)(念)(,但)(信)(用)(利)(差)(和)(期)(限)(也)(有)(较)(大)(的)(关)(系)(,而)(隐)(含)(评)(级)(得)(分)(是)(按)(照)(收)(益)(率)(曲)(线)(给)(信)(用)(债)(信)(用)(利)(差)(进)(行)(打)(分)(,排)(除)(掉)(了)(期)(限)(的)(影)(响)((详)(情)(请)(见)(我)(们)(的)(报)(告)(《产)(业)(债)(专)(题)(:如)(何)(用)(隐)(含)(评)(级)(测)(度)(行)(业)(和)(属)(性)(信)(用)(资)(质)(》)。于)(是)(信)(用)(债)(信)(用)(风)(险)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(公)(式)(可)(定)(义)(为)(:
该)(比)(率)(越)(高)(代)(表)(相)(较)(于)(投)(资)(该)(债)(券)(承)(担)(的)(风)(险)(,其)(获)(得)(的)(收)(益)(更)(多)(。但)(是)(隐)(含)(评)(级)(得)(分)(和)(债)(项)(信)(评)(得)(分)(是)(通)(过)(两)(种)(完)(全)(不)(同)(的)(逻)(辑)(得)(到)(的)(,计)(算)(的)(数)(值)(可)(能)(不)(是)(在)(一)(个)(相)(同)(的)(范)(围)(,可)(能)(会)(导)(致)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(排)(序)(出)(现)(一)(定)(的)(问)(题)(,因)(此)(我)(们)(可)(以)(将)(两)(组)(数)(据)(标)(准)(化)(到)(1至)(2的)(范)(围)((公)(式)(是)([(x-min)/(max-min)]+1)再)(进)(行)(相)(乘)(。
可)(以)(用)(无)(担)(保)(信)(用)(债)(的)(隐)(含)(评)(级)(得)(分)(和)(发)(行)(人)(主)(体)(信)(评)(得)(分)(构)(造)(信)(用)(债)(发)(行)(人)(信)(用)(风)(险)(的)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(,该)(比)(率)(越)(高)(说)(明)(这)(个)(信)(用)(债)(发)(行)(人)(的)(无)(担)(保)(信)(用)(债)(投)(资)(价)(值)(越)(高)(。在)(无)(担)(保)(情)(况)(下)(,信)(用)(债)(债)(项)(评)(级)(和)(主)(体)(评)(级)(基)(本)(一)(致)((除)(了)(次)(级)(债)(券)()。于)(是)(信)(用)(债)(发)(行)(人)(信)(用)(风)(险)(的)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(的)(计)(算)(公)(式)(可)(以)(定)(义)(为)(:
本)(次)(计)(算)(样)(本)(企)(业)(信)(用)(风)(险)(的)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(的)(步)(骤)(:
1.选)(取)(这)(些)(企)(业)(发)(行)(的)(公)(司)(债)(、中)(票)(和)(短)(融)(,剔)(除)(其)(中)(的)(担)(保)(债)(券)(、私)(募)(债)(券)(、累)(进)(利)(率)(债)(券)(、永)(续)(债)(和)(剩)(余)(期)(限)(小)(于)(1年)(的)(债)(券)(;
2.计)(算)(样)(本)(债)(券)(在)(5月)(31日)(的)(建)(投)(隐)(含)(评)(级)(得)(分)((计)(算)(方)(法)(见)(我)(们)(每)(月)(的)(《产)(业)(债)(行)(业)(和)(属)(性)(隐)(含)(评)(级)(指)(数)(月)(报)(》);
3.计)(算)(样)(本)(企)(业)(债)(券)(的)(建)(投)(隐)(含)(评)(级)(分)(的)(平)(均)(值)(;
4.计)(算)(样)(本)(企)(业)(的)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(;
5.将)(隐)(含)(评)(级)(得)(分)(和)(主)(体)(信)(评)(得)(分)(标)(准)(化)(到)(1和)(2的)(范)(围)(;
6.计)(算)(标)(准)(化)(后)(的)(企)(业)(夏)(普)(率)(。
其)(中)(样)(本)(的)(筛)(选)(主)(要)(是)(尽)(量)(避)(免)(流)(动)(性)(和)(特)(殊)(条)(款)(对)(于)(结)(果)(的)(影)(响)(。该)(标)(准)(下)(剔)(除)(了)(部)(分)(债)(券)(导)(致)(部)(分)(发)(行)(人)(的)(无)(担)(保)(非)(次)(级)(债)(券)(隐)(含)(评)(级)(得)(分)(无)(法)(获)(得)(,进)(而)(无)(法)(计)(算)(其)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(。从)(建)(投)(隐)(含)(评)(级)(得)(分)(来)(看)(,根)(据)(我)(们)(的)(计)(算)(:华)(润)(置)(地)(有)(限)(公)(司)(得)(分)(最)(低)((代)(表)(信)(用)(利)(差)(最)(低)(),融)(创)(房)(地)(产)(集)(团)(有)(限)(公)(司)(得)(分)(最)(高)((代)(表)(信)(用)(利)(差)(最)(高)()。从)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(来)(看)(,重)(庆)(龙)(湖)(企)(业)(拓)(展)(有)(限)(公)(司)(的)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(最)(高)(,最)(具)(估)(值)(优)(势)(;中)(国)(铁)(建)(房)(地)(产)(集)(团)(有)(限)(公)(司)(的)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(最)(低)(。从)(标)(准)(化)(后)(的)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(来)(看)(,重)(庆)(龙)(湖)(企)(业)(拓)(展)(有)(限)(公)(司)(的)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(仍)(然)(最)(高)(,最)(具)(估)(值)(优)(势)(;中)(国)(铁)(建)(房)(地)(产)(集)(团)(有)(限)(公)(司)(的)(夏)(普)(比)(率)(仍)(然)(最)(低)(。
产)(业)(巡)(礼)(系)(列)(之)(一)(:火)(电)(行)(业)(评)(级)(框)(架)(
分)(析)(师)(:曾)(羽)(
执)(业)(证)(书)(编)(号)(:S1440512070011
报)(告)(贡)(献)(人)(:张)(君)(瑞)(
邮)(箱)(:zhangjunrui@csc.com.cn
本)(公)(众)(订)(阅)(号)(为)(中)(信)(建)(投)(宏)(观)(固)(收)(研)(究)(团)(队)(设)(立)(的)(。本)(订)(阅)(号)(不)(是)(中)(信)(建)(投)(证)(券)(宏)(观)(固)(收)(研)(究)(报)(告)(的)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,所)(载)(内)(容)(均)(来)(自)(于)(中)(信)(建)(投)(证)(券)(研)(究)(发)(展)(部)(已)(正)(式)(发)(布)(的)(研)(究)(报)(告)(或)(对)(报)(告)(进)(行)(的)(跟)(踪)(与)(解)(读)(,如)(需)(了)(解)(详)(细)(的)(报)(告)(内)(容)(或)(研)(究)(信)(息)(,请)(具)(体)(参)(见)(中)(信)(建)(投)(证)(券)(研)(究)(发)(展)(部)(的)(完)(整)(报)(告)(。在)(任)(何)(情)(况)(下)(,本)(订)(阅)(号)(所)(载)(内)(容)(不)(构)(成)(任)(何)(人)(的)(投)(资)(建)(议)(,中)(信)(建)(投)(证)(券)(及)(相)(关)(研)(究)(团)(队)(也)(不)(对)(任)(何)(因)(使)(用)(本)(订)(阅)(号)(所)(载)(任)(何)(内)(容)(所)(引)(致)(或)(可)(能)(引)(致)(的)(损)(失)(承)(担)(任)(何)(责)(任)(。本)(订)(阅)(号)(对)(所)(载)(研)(究)(报)(告)(保)(留)(一)(切)(法)(律)(权)(利)(。订)(阅)(者)(对)(本)(订)(阅)(号)(所)(载)(所)(有)(内)(容)((包)(括)(文)(字)(、音)(频)(、视)(频)(等)()进)(行)(复)(制)(、转)(载)(的)(,需)(注)(明)(出)(处)(,且)(不)(得)(对)(本)(订)(阅)(号)(所)(载)(内)(容)(进)(行)(任)(何)(有)(悖)(原)(意)(的)(引)(用)(、删)(节)(和)(修)(改)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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