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中国酝酿下一盘“贸易战”大棋

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年05月22日 09:28:32
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腾讯十分彩注册平台直属招商客服【微信QQ同步】7915171诚招代理龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯5,10分欢乐生肖,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。中国酝酿下一盘“贸易战”大棋

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(  中)(国)(海)(关)(总)(署)(周)(二)(公)(布)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,11月)(份)(我)(国)(进)(出)(口)(总)(值)(2.16万)(亿)(元)(,同)(比)(下)(降)(4.5%,其)(中)(出)(口)(下)(降)(3.7%,进)(口)(下)(降)(5.6%,贸)(易)(顺)(差)(扩)(大)(2%。
  进)(出)(口)(贸)(易)(规)(模)(下)(降)(已)(不)(是)(什)(么)(新)(颖)(之)(事)(,此)(处)(要)(重)(点)(提)(及)(的)(是)(出)(口)(中)(一)(些)(大)(幅)(增)(的)(品)(种)(,如)(11月)(钢)(铁)(出)(口)(大)(增)(21.7%,11月)(成)(品)(油)(净)(出)(口)(升)(至)(222万)(吨)(的)(历)(史)(新)(高)(,较)(10月)(增)(长)(77%。铝)(出)(口)(也)(大)(涨)(37%,创)(出)(历)(史)(第)(二)(高)(水)(平)(。
  不)(难)(看)(出)(,上)(述)(列)(举)(的)(品)(种)(均)(与)(国)(内)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(行)(业)(相)(关)(,在)(中)(国)(经)(济)(放)(缓)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,冶)(炼)(厂)(、炼)(油)(厂)(、钢)(铁)(厂)(以)(及)(相)(关)(矿)(业)(企)(业)(产)(量)(过)(剩)(,国)(内)(无)(法)(消)(化)(,开)(始)(向)(海)(外)(市)(场)(输)(出)(。
  然)(而)(,大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(自)(由)(落)(体)(式)(下)(坠)(之)(时)(,中)(国)(加)(速)(出)(口)(“过)(剩)(产)(能)(”,这)(股)(洪)(流)(已)(对)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(市)(场)(形)(成)(了)(进)(一)(步)(冲)(击)(。
  NH投)(资)(及)(证)(券)(公)(司)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(分)(析)(师)(KangYooJin表)(示)(,“随)(着)(中)(国)(艰)(难)(对)(付)(基)(本)(金)(属)(、钢)(铁)(和)(油)(品)(的)(供)(应)(过)(剩)(,令)(全)(球)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(生)(产)(商)(处)(于)(不)(利)(境)(地)(。大)(宗)(商)(品)(过)(剩)(已)(成)(为)(中)(国)(真)(正)(的)(痛)(楚)(,为)(了)(缓)(解)(过)(剩)(,中)(国)(正)(在)(增)(加)(出)(口)(。”
  数)(据)(显)(示)(,今)(年)(前)(11个)(月)(,中)(国)(钢)(铁)(出)(口)(量)(增)(加)(了)(22%,至)(1.017亿)(吨)(。中)(国)(的)(出)(口)(量)(超)(过)(了)(除)(日)(本)(以)(外)(任)(何)(国)(家)(的)(钢)(铁)(总)(产)(量)(。
  今)(年)(中)(国)(钢)(铁)(出)(口)(量)(达)(到)(了)(逾)(1亿)(吨)(的)(创)(纪)(录)(水)(平)(,表)(明)(中)(国)(依)(靠)(全)(球)(销)(售)(来)(帮)(助)(消)(化)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(。
  从)(钢)(铁)(到)(铝)(,中)(国)(加)(工)(原)(材)(料)(的)(出)(口)(量)(不)(断)(上)(升)(,帮)(助)(推)(动)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(跌)(至)(近)(十)(年)(最)(低)(水)(平)(,打)(压)(了)(全)(球)(矿)(商)(和)(钢)(铁)(生)(产)(商)(的)(股)(价)(。
  同)(时)(中)(国)(也)(遭)(遇)(了)(一)(系)(列)(贸)(易)(相)(关)(的)(指)(责)(,例)(如)(印)(度)(第)(三)(大)(钢)(铁)(厂)(商)(JSWSteel批)(评)(中)(国)(企)(业)(因)(补)(贴)(可)(以)(出)(口)(廉)(价)(钢)(铁)(有)(失)(公)(平)(,中)(方)(则)(表)(示)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(是)(全)(球)(性)(问)(题)(。
  没)(有)(多)(久)(以)(前)(,观)(察)(家)(对)(中)(国)(奇)(迹)(般)(的)(经)(济)(惊)(人)(的)(物)(质)(制)(造)(力)(还)(兴)(奋)(不)(已)(。某)(报)(纸)(曾)(计)(算)(,中)(国)(两)(年)(制)(造)(的)(水)(泥)(比)(美)(国)(整)(个)(20世)(纪)(制)(造)(的)(还)(多)(。
  如)(今)(,两)(位)(数)(的)(经)(济)(增)(速)(已)(经)(不)(再)(,许)(多)(基)(础)(行)(业)(出)(现)(大)(规)(模)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(。随)(着)(越)(来)(越)(多)(的)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(盯)(上)(国)(外)(,从)(世)(界)(市)(场)(上)(寻)(找)(出)(路)(,看)(上)(去)(很)(可)(能)(引)(起)(激)(烈)(的)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(主)(义)(反)(应)(。
  据)(英)(国)(《经)(济)(学)(人)(》称)(,最)(引)(人)(瞩)(目)(的)(就)(是)(钢)(铁)(了)(。中)(国)(的)(年)(产)(量)(约)(占)(世)(界)(16亿)(吨)(年)(产)(量)(的)(一)(半)(。瑞)(士)(银)(行)(的)(分)(析)(师)(估)(算)(,今)(年)(的)(产)(量)(会)(比)(消)(耗)(量)(多)(4.41亿)(吨)(。
  一)(项)(调)(查)(估)(算)(,受)(价)(格)(下)(跌)(影)(响)(,中)(国)(101家)(大)(型)(钢)(铁)(企)(业)(今)(年)(前)(10个)(月)(大)(约)(亏)(损)(110亿)(美)(元)(,大)(约)(是)(去)(年)(利)(润)(的)(两)(倍)(。不)(出)(所)(料)(,它)(们)(开)(始)(不)(惜)(蚀)(本)(也)(要)(设)(法)(将)(多)(余)(的)(产)(品)(向)(外)(输)(出)(。
  美)(国)(钢)(铁)(行)(业)(的)(游)(说)(力)(量)(已)(经)(开)(始)(大)(声)(疾)(呼)(,要)(求)(采)(取)(行)(动)(制)(止)(他)(们)(认)(为)(的)(非)(法)(倾)(销)(补)(贴)(产)(品)(的)(行)(为)(。
  在)(欧)(洲)(,一)(个)(身)(处)(减)(产)(与)(关)(闭)(潮)(的)(行)(业)(正)(敦)(促)(欧)(盟)(委)(员)(会)(不)(要)(给)(予)(中)(国)(“市)(场)(经)(济)(”地)(位)(,这)(个)(法)(律)(定)(位)(会)(让)(各)(国)(更)(加)(难)(以)(抑)(制)(中)(国)(产)(品)(进)(口)(。
  但)(是)(中)(国)(财)(政)(部)(表)(示)(,将)(把)(钢)(坯)(的)(出)(口)(关)(税)(从)(25%下)(调)(至)(20%。
  “在)(外)(部)(经)(济)(环)(境)(比)(较)(低)(迷)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,这)(些)(措)(施)(旨)(在)(消)(化)(国)(内)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(,增)(加)(国)(外)(需)(求)(。”社)(科)(院)(财)(经)(战)(略)(研)(究)(院)(研)(究)(员)(蒋)(震)(说)(。
  东)(方)(证)(券)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(邵)(宇)(对)(此)(表)(示)(,调)(整)(出)(口)(关)(税)(最)(直)(接)(的)(就)(是)(降)(低)(供)(给)(成)(本)(,让)(利)(给)(企)(业)(,让)(企)(业)(更)(加)(积)(极)(地)(加)(入)(到)(出)(口)(竞)(争)(的)(行)(列)(中)(去)(。
  种)(种)(迹)(象)(表)(明)(,中)(国)(在)(下)(很)(大)(一)(盘)(棋)(,一)(场)(贸)(易)(战)(也)(许)(正)(在)(酝)(酿)(,冲)(在)(最)(前)(面)(的)(就)(是)(钢)(铁)(行)(业)(。
  国)(际)(投)(行)(:中)(国)(钢)(铁)(厂)(宁)(可)(亏)(钱)(也)(不)(愿)(减)(产)(
  来)(自)(中)(国)(的)(出)(口)(伴)(随)(全)(球)(性)(的)(供)(给)(过)(剩)(,大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(已)(跌)(至)(十)(六)(年)(来)(最)(低)(水)(平)(。同)(时)(中)(国)(也)(遭)(遇)(了)(一)(系)(列)(贸)(易)(相)(关)(的)(指)(责)(,例)(如)(印)(度)(第)(三)(大)(钢)(铁)(厂)(商)(JSWSteel批)(评)(中)(国)(企)(业)(因)(补)(贴)(可)(以)(出)(口)(廉)(价)(钢)(铁)(有)(失)(公)(平)(,中)(方)(则)(表)(示)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(是)(全)(球)(性)(问)(题)(。
  当)(前)(中)(国)(钢)(铁)(厂)(处)(理)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(的)(作)(法)(,是)(不)(计)(盈)(亏)(、低)(价)(销)(往)(国)(外)(。海)(关)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,今)(年)(1~11月)(,中)(国)(钢)(铁)(出)(口)(大)(增)(22%至)(1亿)(吨)(,为)(历)(史)(上)(首)(次)(年)(度)(突)(破)(1亿)(吨)(,平)(均)(每)(吨)(售)(价)(570美)(元)(。
  中)(国)(现)(在)(正)(处)(于)(经)(济)(转)(型)(、出)(清)(旧)(产)(能)(之)(际)(,但)(由)(于)(中)(国)(钢)(铁)(和)(油)(企)(大)(多)(具)(有)(国)(企)(性)(质)(,汇)(丰)(分)(析)(师)(ChrisChen等)(人)(报)(告)(指)(出)(,维)(持)(社)(会)(稳)(定)(是)(解)(决)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(的)(最)(大)(阻)(碍)(。
  麦)(格)(理)(此)(前)(表)(示)(,中)(国)(地)(方)(钢)(铁)(厂)(宁)(可)(亏)(钱)(,也)(不)(愿)(减)(产)(。该)(行)(称)(,关)(闭)(钢)(铁)(厂)(产)(能)(极)(为)(困)(难)(;首)(先)(,地)(方)(政)(府)(为)(了)(保)(护)(就)(业)(和)(税)(收)(,不)(许)(钢)(铁)(厂)(关)(门)(。
  其)(次)(,银)(行)(要)(求)(钢)(铁)(厂)(维)(持)(营)(运)(,以)(免)(需)(认)(列)(大)(笔)(坏)(帐)(。再)(来)(,钢)(铁)(厂)(也)(担)(心)(流)(失)(市)(场)(份)(额)(,害)(怕)(一)(旦)(停)(止)(产)(出)(,之)(后)(要)(重)(启)(生)(产)(代)(价)(较)(大)(。种)(种)(因)(素)(导)(致)(中)(国)(钢)(铁)(行)(业)(陷)(入)(“囚)(徒)(困)(境)(”,产)(能)(迟)(迟)(无)(法)(缩)(减)(。
  中)(国)(钢)(铁)(的)(生)(产)(量)(占)(到)(全)(球)(一)(半)(,今)(年)(尽)(管)(中)(国)(减)(少)(了)(5000万)(吨)(的)(钢)(铁)(产)(能)(,但)(仅)(占)(国)(内)(总)(产)(能)(的)(4%。汇)(丰)(估)(计)(,明)(年)(中)(国)(需)(要)(再)(减)(少)(1.2亿)(~1.6亿)(吨)(的)(钢)(铁)(产)(能)(,产)(能)(利)(用)(率)(才)(能)(回)(到)(较)(为)(健)(康)(的)(80%左)(右)(。
  “目)(前)(,中)(国)(削)(减)(钢)(材)(产)(量)(的)(速)(度)(非)(常)(缓)(慢)(,远)(远)(达)(不)(到)(再)(平)(衡)((国)(内)()或)(全)(球)(市)(场)(所)(需)(的)(速)(度)(。”凯)(投)(宏)(观)(分)(析)(师)(约)(翰)(科)(瓦)(奇)(说)(。
  他)(接)(着)(说)(,以)(欧)(元)(计)(,中)(国)(钢)(铁)(生)(产)(商)(今)(年)(提)(供)(的)(价)(格)(一)(直)(颇)(有)(吸)(引)(力)(。
  麦)(格)(理)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,中)(国)(钢)(铁)(出)(口)(量)(比)(美)(国)(国)(内)(钢)(铁)(总)(产)(量)(高)(出)(50%。该)(行)(预)(测)(,直)(到)(本)(十)(年)(结)(束)(,中)(国)(年)(度)(钢)(铁)(出)(口)(量)(将)(保)(持)(在)(1亿)(吨)(以)(上)(,在)(此)(期)(间)(价)(格)(无)(望)(复)(苏)(。
  麦)(格)(理)(称)(,钢)(铁)(价)(格)(疲)(软)(打)(击)(了)(生)(产)(商)(的)(利)(润)(率)(,后)(者)(已)(降)(至)(上)(世)(纪)(90年)(代)(初)(以)(来)(未)(曾)(有)(过)(的)(水)(平)(。
  世)(界)(钢)(铁)(协)(会)(称)(,今)(年)(钢)(铁)(需)(求)(量)(可)(能)(会)(下)(降)(1.7%。
  中)(国)(的)(钢)(铁)(出)(口)(加)(剧)(了)(贸)(易)(紧)(张)(行)(情)(,但)(分)(析)(师)(表)(示)(,单)(靠)(关)(税)(无)(法)(平)(衡)(市)(场)(。经)(合)(组)(织)((OECD)钢)(铁)(委)(员)(会)(的)(行)(业)(和)(政)(府)(官)(员)(在)(本)(月)(开)(会)(后)(表)(示)(,必)(须)(立)(即)(采)(取)(行)(动)(应)(对)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(的)(挑)(战)(。他)(们)(预)(计)(,钢)(铁)(产)(能)(将)(继)(续)(增)(加)(,在)(2017年)(达)(到)(24亿)(吨)(。
  美)(国)(将)(在)(3个)(月)(内)(公)(布)(针)(对)(热)(轧)(钢)(卷)(、冷)(轧)(钢)(卷)(和)(覆)(膜)(产)(品)(的)(三)(项)(反)(倾)(销)(案)(调)(查)(结)(果)(。
  与)(此)(同)(时)(,欧)(洲)(市)(场)(针)(对)(中)(国)(钢)(铁)(出)(口)(的)(负)(面)(声)(音)(就)(没)(有)(中)(断)(过)(。
  英)(国)(首)(相)(戴)(维)(卡)(梅)(伦)(正)(在)(被)(其)(国)(内)(钢)(铁)(行)(业)(组)(织)(建)(议)(在)(峰)(会)(上)(要)(求)(中)(国)(停)(止)(向)(欧)(洲)(倾)(销)(低)(价)(的)(钢)(铁)(产)(品)(,否)(则)(“即)(将)(失)(去)(欧)(洲)(的)(市)(场)(机)(会)(”。
  国)(际)(钢)(铁)(统)(计)(局)(的)(数)(据)(表)(示)(,2014年)(英)(国)(进)(口)(中)(国)(钢)(铁)(的)(数)(量)(只)(占)(英)(国)(总)(进)(口)(量)(的)(大)(约)(1/10,称)(中)(国)(是)(英)(国)(钢)(铁)(行)(业)(惨)(淡)(行)(情)(的)(“替)(罪)(羊)(”,并)(列)(举)(出)(英)(国)(钢)(铁)(行)(业)(的)(高)(能)(源)(成)(本)(、重)(工)(业)(环)(保)(税)(收)(成)(本)(等)(多)(种)(原)(因)(。
  “钢)(铁)(行)(业)(产)(能)(严)(重)(过)(剩)(,剧)(烈)(淘)(汰)(的)(周)(期)(漫)(长)(,可)(能)(需)(要)(8~13年)(,现)(在)(大)(部)(分)(国)(家)(都)(已)(经)(经)(历)(过)(这)(个)(周)(期)(了)(,而)(中)(国)(当)(下)(的)(粗)(钢)(产)(量)(接)(近)(世)(界)(总)(量)(的)(50%,可)(以)(说)(正)(处)(在)(最)(难)(熬)(的)(阶)(段)(,所)(以)(很)(多)(国)(家)(都)(对)(中)(国)(的)(钢)(铁)(出)(口)(存)(有)(很)(强)(的)(抵)(触)(心)(理)(。”分)(析)(师)(程)(志)(明)(表)(示)(。
  程)(志)(明)(透)(露)(,淘)(汰)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(的)(过)(程)(会)(“非)(常)(残)(酷)(”:“现)(在)(国)(有)(钢)(厂)(都)(在)(通)(过)(各)(种)(手)(段)(压)(缩)(成)(本)(,之)(后)(一)(段)(时)(间)(内)(还)(会)(有)(很)(多)(中)(小)(型)(钢)(铁)(企)(业)(面)(临)(倒)(闭)(。”
  中)(国)(钢)(铁)(厂)(的)(亏)(损)(数)(据)(,远)(高)(于)(先)(前)(预)(期)(。宝)(钢)(集)(团)(董)(事)(长)(徐)(乐)(江)(10月)(曾)(透)(露)(,今)(年)(1~8月)(中)(国)(钢)(铁)(业)(累)(计)(亏)(损)(人)(民)(币)(180亿)(元)((相)(当)(于)(39亿)(美)(元)()、远)(不)(如)(一)(年)(前)(的)(140亿)(元)(盈)(余)(。
  由)(于)(中)(国)(钢)(铁)(和)(油)(企)(大)(多)(具)(有)(国)(企)(性)(质)(,中)(国)(地)(方)(钢)(铁)(厂)(宁)(可)(亏)(钱)(,也)(不)(愿)(减)(产)(。当)(前)(中)(国)(钢)(铁)(厂)(处)(理)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(的)(做)(法)(,是)(不)(计)(盈)(亏)(、低)(价)(销)(往)(国)(外)(。
  关)(闭)(钢)(铁)(厂)(产)(能)(极)(为)(困)(难)(。首)(先)(,地)(方)(政)(府)(为)(了)(保)(护)(就)(业)(和)(税)(收)(,不)(许)(钢)(铁)(厂)(关)(门)(。其)(次)(,银)(行)(要)(求)(钢)(铁)(厂)(维)(持)(营)(运)(,以)(免)(需)(认)(列)(大)(笔)(坏)(帐)(。
  再)(来)(,钢)(铁)(厂)(也)(担)(心)(流)(失)(市)(场)(份)(额)(,害)(怕)(一)(旦)(停)(止)(产)(出)(,之)(后)(要)(重)(启)(生)(产)(代)(价)(较)(大)(。种)(种)(因)(素)(导)(致)(中)(国)(钢)(铁)(行)(业)(陷)(入)(“囚)(徒)(困)(境)(”,产)(能)(迟)(迟)(无)(法)(缩)(减)(。
  中)(国)(的)(铝)(产)(品)(也)(遭)(到)(敌)(视)(。据)(英)(国)(《金)(融)(时)(报)(》报)(道)(,嘉)(能)(可)(控)(股)(的)(世)(纪)(铝)(业)(公)(司)((CenturyAluminum)资)(助)(游)(说)(团)(体)(开)(展)(请)(愿)(与)(网)(络)(活)(动)(,他)(们)(要)(求)(美)(国)(政)(府)(对)(中)(国)(铝)(产)(品)(采)(取)(行)(动)(,指)(责)(中)(国)(对)(亏)(损)(的)(生)(产)(商)(进)(行)(补)(贴)(导)(致)(全)(球)(铝)(业)(价)(格)(大)(幅)(下)(挫)(。
  在)(由)(该)(团)(体)(制)(作)(的)(一)(部)(视)(频)(的)(开)(头)(,一)(位)(头)(戴)(安)(全)(帽)(的)(工)(人)(说)(,“中)(国)(作)(弊)(,美)(国)(每)(次)(都)(输)(。”视)(频)(还)(提)(到)(,“美)(国)(正)(被)(中)(国)(打)(败)(,我)(们)(需)(要)(重)(新)(赢)(回)(来)(。”
  世)(纪)(铝)(业)(公)(司)(的)(做)(法)(其)(实)(反)(映)(了)(美)(国)(铝)(业)(的)(现)(状)(。在)(该)(公)(司)(近)(期)(宣)(布)(糟)(糕)(的)(季)(度)(财)(报)(以)(及)(缩)(减)(产)(能)(的)(计)(划)(后)(,25%的)(公)(司)(市)(值)(就)(此)(蒸)(发)(。
  美)(国)(最)(大)(、全)(球)(第)(三)(大)(铝)(材)(生)(产)(商)(美)(铝)(的)(处)(境)(,在)(国)(际)(铝)(价)(接)(近)(六)(年)(低)(位)(之)(际)(,美)(铝)(宣)(布)(大)(减)(产)(能)(,美)(国)(全)(国)(炼)(铝)(将)(因)(此)(减)(少)(约)(三)(成)(。彭)(博)(新)(闻)(社)(为)(此)(亮)(出)(了)(“127年)(历)(史)(的)(美)(国)(铝)(产)(业)(被)(中)(国)(摧)(毁)(”的)(标)(题)(。
  咨)(询)(公)(司)(HarborAluminumIntelligence的)(JorgeVázquez=表)(示)(,如)(果)(铝)(价)(格)(继)(续)(下)(挫)(,美)(国)(到)(明)(年)(可)(能)(就)(会)(停)(止)(生)(产)(铝)(。这)(意)(味)(着)(工)(作)(岗)(位)(将)(减)(少)(,美)(国)(也)(将)(更)(加)(依)(赖)(进)(口)(。
  铝)(是)(一)(种)(重)(要)(的)(工)(业)(金)(属)(,被)(广)(泛)(用)(于)(建)(筑)(业)(、航)(空)(业)(、国)(防)(军)(工)(以)(及)(制)(造)(业)(。今)(年)(以)(来)(,铝)(价)(格)(已)(经)(跌)(了)(18%,至)(1489美)(元)(/吨)(。
  彭)(博)(报)(道)(认)(为)(,中)(国)(是)(改)(变)(铝)(业)(格)(局)(的)(重)(要)(力)(量)(,去)(年)(中)(国)(主)(导)(市)(场)(是)(关)(键)(。美)(国)(银)(行)(预)(计)(,因)(中)(国)(产)(量)(大)(增)(激)(化)(全)(球)(供)(过)(于)(求)(形)(势)(,压)(低)(铝)(价)(,全)(球)(50%以)(上)(的)(铝)(业)(生)(产)(商)(都)(在)(亏)(本)(经)(营)(,而)(中)(国)(的)(同)(行)(还)(有)(利)(可)(图)(,进)(一)(步)(推)(升)(国)(内)(现)(货)(铝)(和)(国)(际)(价)(格)(的)(溢)(价)(。
  HarborIntelligence预)(计)(,今)(年)(中)(国)(的)(铝)(产)(量)(可)(能)(占)(全)(球)(的)(55%,2005年)(占)(比)(还)(只)(有)(24%。美)(国)(这)(十)(年)(的)(产)(量)(已)(经)(从)(250万)(吨)(降)(至)(160万)(吨)(。
  早)(在)(今)(年)(2月)(,西)(方)(分)(析)(师)(就)(称)(,中)(国)(的)(铝)(出)(口)(量)(大)(增)(,已)(经)(撼)(动)(全)(球)(市)(场)(,这)(是)(源)(于)(国)(内)(生)(产)(商)(利)(用)(税)(收)(漏)(洞)(,将)(铝)(佯)(装)(成)(“半)(成)(品)(”再)(出)(口)(,这)(样)(不)(但)(不)(会)(缴)(纳)(15%的)(出)(口)(税)(,还)(能)(从)(“半)(成)(品)(”中)(获)(得)(13%的)(增)(值)(税)(返)(还)(,加)(之)(买)(家)(们)(为)(LME期)(铝)(所)(付)(出)(的)(溢)(价)(,中)(国)(出)(口)(的)(铝)(相)(较)(于)(其)(它)(国)(家)(更)(具)(竞)(争)(力)(。
  未)(来)(一)(段)(时)(间)(,化)(解)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(的)(政)(策)(力)(度)(将)(加)(大)(,既)(包)(括)(已)(出)(台)(政)(策)(落)(实)(力)(度)(的)(加)(强)(,也)(包)(括)(从)(市)(场)(准)(入)(、信)(贷)(、上)(市)(融)(资)(、行)(业)(整)(合)(等)(诸)(多)(环)(节)(出)(台)(新)(的)(措)(施)(。他)(们)(建)(议)(,调)(整)(优)(化)(产)(业)(结)(构)(,加)(快)(企)(业)(并)(购)(重)(组)(;拓)(展)(对)(外)(出)(口)(,借)(助)(“一)(带)(一)(路)(”等)(国)(家)(战)(略)(加)(大)(国)(际)(产)(能)(合)(作)(;加)(大)(国)(有)(企)(业)(改)(革)(力)(度)(,以)(市)(场)(为)(主)(进)(行)(调)(节)(。
  北)(京)(大)(学)(国)(家)(发)(展)(研)(究)(院)(经)(济)(学)(教)(授)(、宏)(观)(经)(济)(研)(究)(中)(心)(主)(任)(卢)(锋)(表)(示)(,产)(能)(过)(剩)(是)(一)(个)(周)(期)(性)(问)(题)(,同)(时)(也)(是)(目)(前)(经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(大)(的)(原)(因)(之)(一)(。
  2013年)(出)(台)(的)(《国)(务)(院)(关)(于)(化)(解)(产)(能)(严)(重)(过)(剩)(矛)(盾)(的)(指)(导)(意)(见)(》指)(出)(,我)(国)(出)(现)(产)(能)(严)(重)(过)(剩)(主)(要)(受)(发)(展)(阶)(段)(、发)(展)(理)(念)(和)(体)(制)(机)(制)(等)(多)(种)(因)(素)(的)(影)(响)(。在)(加)(快)(推)(进)(工)(业)(化)(、城)(镇)(化)(的)(发)(展)(阶)(段)(,市)(场)(需)(求)(快)(速)(增)(长)(,一)(些)(企)(业)(对)(市)(场)(预)(期)(过)(于)(乐)(观)(,盲)(目)(投)(资)(,加)(剧)(了)(产)(能)(扩)(张)(;部)(分)(行)(业)(发)(展)(方)(式)(粗)(放)(,创)(新)(能)(力)(不)(强)(,产)(业)(集)(中)(度)(低)(,没)(有)(形)(成)(由)(优)(强)(企)(业)(主)(导)(的)(产)(业)(发)(展)(格)(局)(,导)(致)(行)(业)(无)(序)(竞)(争)(、重)(复)(建)(设)(严)(重)(。
  卢)(锋)(认)(为)(,目)(前)(,一)(些)(经)(济)(行)(业)(不)(景)(气)(,甚)(至)(有)(很)(多)(企)(业)(要)(“退)(出)(”,这)(就)(是)(调)(整)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(的)(阵)(痛)(。但)(“退)(出)(”并)(不)(是)(指)(浪)(费)(资)(源)(,而)(是)(进)(一)(步)(重)(组)(、兼)(并)(,重)(新)(组)(合)(资)(源)(,对)(过)(高)(的)(总)(量)(要)(适)(当)(向)(下)(调)(节)(。通)(过)(重)(组)(、兼)(并)(、并)(购)(,形)(成)(一)(种)(集)(中)(度)(、效)(率)(、水)(平)(更)(高)(的)(结)(构)(,这)(也)(和)(产)(业)(结)(构)(调)(整)(是)(结)(合)(在)(一)(起)(的)(。
  民)(生)(证)(券)(研)(究)(院)(固)(定)(收)(益)(组)(负)(责)(人)(李)(奇)(霖)(认)(为)(,落)(后)(企)(业)(没)(有)(必)(要)(保)(住)(,应)(加)(大)(并)(购)(力)(度)(,让)(市)(场)(份)(额)(集)(中)(到)(一)(个)(公)(司)(中)(。
  在)(化)(解)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(的)(速)(度)(和)(方)(向)(上)(,光)(大)(证)(券)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(徐)(高)(认)(为)(,去)(产)(能)(要)(逐)(步)(推)(进)(,如)(果)(出)(现)(大)(规)(模)(快)(速)(去)(产)(能)(现)(象)(,经)(济)(增)(长)(一)(定)(会)(陷)(入)(低)(迷)(状)(态)(。因)(而)(,去)(产)(能)(是)(个)(方)(向)(,但)(还)(需)(从)(存)(量)(稳)(住)(,增)(量)(严)(控)(着)(手)(。
  同)(时)(,对)(存)(量)(也)(可)(以)(做)(一)(些)(优)(化)(。政)(府)(一)(直)(在)(推)(动)(产)(业)(的)(兼)(并)(重)(组)(,实)(际)(上)(也)(是)(淘)(汰)(落)(后)(生)(产)(能)(力)(的)(途)(径)(,兼)(并)(重)(组)(一)(方)(面)(优)(化)(整)(个)(生)(产)(效)(率)(,一)(方)(面)(也)(不)(至)(于)(造)(成)(企)(业)(倒)(闭)(和)(失)(业)(问)(题)(。
  此)(前)(,中)(共)(中)(央)(、国)(务)(院)(印)(发)(的)(《关)(于)(深)(化)(国)(有)(企)(业)(改)(革)(的)(指)(导)(意)(见)(》中)(提)(出)(了)(“三)(个)(一)(批)(”,即)(清)(理)(退)(出)(一)(批)(、重)(组)(整)(合)(一)(批)(、创)(新)(发)(展)(一)(批)(国)(有)(企)(业)(。
  海)(通)(证)(券)(副)(总)(裁)(兼)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(李)(迅)(雷)(表)(示)(,现)(在)(国)(有)(企)(业)(亏)(损)(越)(来)(越)(大)(,很)(多)(政)(策)(是)(不)(到)(位)(的)(。国)(有)(企)(业)(债)(务)(率)(今)(年)(比)(去)(年)(同)(期)(有)(所)(增)(加)(,一)(方)(面)(是)(因)(为)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(,另)(一)(方)(面)(是)(因)(为)(仍)(在)(向)(银)(行)(大)(量)(贷)(款)(。
  今)(年)(3月)(至)(9月)(,国)(有)(企)(业)(债)(务)(余)(额)(增)(加)(了)(十)(万)(亿)(,这)(非)(但)(没)(有)(解)(决)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(问)(题)(,反)(而)(加)(重)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(。
  国)(有)(企)(业)(改)(革)(已)(经)(探)(索)(了)(二)(十)(几)(年)(,现)(在)(仍)(然)(还)(在)(探)(索)(当)(中)(,所)(以)(一)(定)(要)(加)(大)(国)(企)(改)(革)(力)(度)(。产)(能)(过)(剩)(需)(要)(按)(市)(场)(化)(原)(则)(来)(解)(决)(,只)(有)(打)(破)(刚)(性)(兑)(付)(,否)(则)(这)(个)(问)(题)(根)(本)(无)(法)(解)(决)(。
  然)(而)(,历)(史)(的)(时)(针)(拨)(回)(17年)(前)(,中)(国)(也)(面)(临)(着)(同)(样)(的)(问)(题)(。当)(时)(,高)(速)(信)(贷)(投)(放)(导)(致)(纺)(织)(等)(行)(业)(出)(现)(大)(量)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(、资)(源)(严)(重)(错)(配)(、国)(企)(大)(面)(积)(亏)(损)(。但)(政)(府)(通)(过)(一)(系)(列)(改)(革)(,顺)(利)(化)(解)(了)(这)(一)(“顽)(疾)(”。
  92年)(邓)(小)(平)(南)(巡)(以)(来)(,全)(国)(掀)(起)(了)(一)(轮)(加)(速)(投)(资)(高)(潮)(。高)(速)(的)(信)(贷)(投)(放)(下)(,资)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(维)(持)(高)(位)(。92-96年)(间)(积)(累)(大)(量)(低)(效)(产)(能)(,而)(体)(制)(障)(碍)(又)(导)(致)(去)(产)(能)(和)(去)(杠)(杆)(缓)(慢)(,融)(资)(结)(构)(与)(绩)(效)(结)(构)(不)(匹)(配)(,资)(源)(错)(配)(严)(重)(,信)(用)(资)(源)(持)(续)(流)(向)(国)(有)(亏)(损)(部)(门)(。
  另)(外)(一)(方)(面)(,过)(热)(投)(资)(导)(致)(通)(胀)(率)(攀)(升)(影)(响)(了)(94-96年)(间)(货)(币)(政)(策)(从)(紧)(,叠)(加)(97-98年)(亚)(洲)(金)(融)(危)(机)(的)(外)(部)(冲)(击)(下)(需)(求)(减)(少)(。
  针)(对)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(的)(问)(题)(,当)(时)(国)(务)(院)(总)(理)(朱)(f)(基)(领)(导)(的)(政)(府)(主)(要)(采)(取)(了)(以)(下)(措)(施)(:
  1、货)(币)(政)(策)(“中)(性)(偏)(紧)(”,倒)(逼)(企)(业)(去)(产)(能)(、去)(杠)(杆)(。98年)(朱)(f)(基)(总)(理)(在)(国)(务)(院)(会)(议)(强)(调)(“两)(件)(事)(情)(不)(能)(做)(:银)(行)(放)(松)(银)(根)(、生)(产)(挤)(压)(产)(品)(等)(于)(自)(杀)(;搞)(大)(干)(快)(上)(,搞)(重)(复)(建)(设)(。
  从)(货)(币)(政)(策)(来)(看)(,98年)(之)(前)(为)(“适)(度)(从)(紧)(”,98年)(改)(为)(“适)(当)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(”,99年)(“稳)(健)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(”,银)(行)(信)(贷)(并)(不)(因)(经)(济)(下)(滑)(而)(大)(幅)(投)(放)(。
  2、使)(用)(行)(政)(手)(段)(,供)(给)(端)(改)(革)(:终)(止)(重)(复)(建)(设)(、清)(理)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(、兼)(并)(破)(产)(落)(后)(企)(业)(、下)(岗)(分)(流)(劳)(工)(。企)(业)(兼)(并)(、破)(产)(加)(快)(,96-98年)(,国)(有)(企)(业)(从)(11.38万)(家)(下)(降)(至)(6.5万)(家)(,减)(少)(幅)(度)(达)(到)(42%。同)(时)(减)(员)(增)(效)(、下)(岗)(分)(流)(,98年)(至)(99年)(间)(,国)(有)(企)(业)(就)(业)(人)(数)(下)(降)(约)(2200万)(。
  3、企)(业)(债)(权)(转)(股)(权)(,金)(融)(政)(策)(兜)(底)(,由)(资)(产)(管)(理)(公)(司)(剥)(离)(银)(行)(债)(务)(。四)(大)(资)(产)(管)(理)(公)(司)(收)(到)(财)(政)(部)(提)(供)(的)(资)(本)(金)(以)(及)(央)(行)(再)(贷)(款)(,获)(准)(后)(向)(对)(口)(商)(业)(银)(行)(发)(放)(专)(项)(金)(融)(债)(,向)(四)(大)(行)(收)(购)(不)(良)(资)(产)(。其)(中)(1999-2005年)(间)(剥)(离)(不)(良)(资)(产)(总)(额)(高)(达)(2.58万)(亿)(。
  4、实)(施)(以)(增)(发)(长)(期)(建)(设)(国)(债)(为)(主)(的)(积)(极)(财)(政)(政)(策)(。1998年)(开)(始)(启)(动)(积)(极)(财)(政)(政)(策)(,当)(年)(增)(发)(1000亿)(元)(长)(期)(国)(债)(并)(配)(套)(1000亿)(元)(银)(行)(贷)(款)(用)(以)(加)(强)(基)(础)(建)(设)((用)(于)(农)(林)(水)(利)(、交)(通)(、基)(础)(建)(设)(、电)(网)()。过)(清)(理)(整)(顿)(乱)(收)(费)(727项)(,减)(轻)(企)(业)(和)(社)(会)(负)(担)(370多)(亿)(元)(。
  1998-2003年)(期)(间)(持)(续)(维)(持)(积)(极)(的)(财)(政)(政)(策)(,直)(至)(2004年)(经)(济)(企)(稳)(后)(积)(极)(财)(政)(政)(策)(才)(逐)(步)(退)(出)(。
  5、需)(求)(端)(改)(革)(,释)(放)(新)(需)(求)(:房)(改)(、税)(改)(、汇)(改)(。主)(要)(有)(98年)(后)(房)(改)(启)(动)(,成)(为)(新)(的)(经)(济)(增)(长)(点)(,房)(改)(带)(动)(高)(速)(城)(镇)(化)(消)(化)(制)(造)(业)(产)(能)(,土)(地)(财)(政)(修)(复)(地)(方)(政)(府)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(。
  其)(次)(,94年)(分)(税)(制)(改)(革)(后)(,加)(大)(了)(中)(央)(集)(权)(,税)(制)(改)(革)(使)(得)(国)(库)(充)(盈)(。
  再)(次)(,94年)(汇)(改)(和)(人)(民)(币)(一)(次)(性)(贬)(值)(,94年)(起)(出)(口)(导)(向)(型)(经)(济)(逐)(步)(形)(成)(。2000年)(以)(后)((特)(别)(是)(加)(入)(WTO)后)(,发)(达)(国)(家)(加)(杠)(杆)(、降)(储)(蓄)(,外)(需)(启)(动)(,国)(内)(出)(口)(增)(速)(回)(升)(引)(导)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(消)(化)(。
  事)(实)(上)(,中)(国)(的)(国)(情)(决)(定)(了)(一)(些)(此)(前)(的)(“支)(柱)(”产)(业)(不)(能)(倒)(,即)(便)(是)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(已)(达)(到)(承)(受)(之)(极)(值)(。
  相)(比)(于)(减)(产)(、革)(新)(技)(术)(等)(一)(些)(根)(本)(性)(方)(法)(,中)(国)(官)(方)(愿)(意)(采)(取)(诸)(如)(出)(口)(“过)(剩)(产)(能)(”之)(类)(的)(治)(标)(不)(治)(本)(的)(方)(式)(,最)(终)(结)(果)(也)(就)(是)(“拉)(着)(全)(球)(一)(起)(去)(产)(能)(”。
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