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绿地香港(0337.HK)销售加动力,可长期关注的优质低估地产股

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年05月22日 09:12:21
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(  ?作)(者)(:格)(隆)(汇)(·GY羊)(
  绿)(地)(香)(港)((0337.HK)8月)(30日)(公)(布)(中)(期)(业)(绩)(报)(告)(,截)(至)(2018年)(上)(半)(年)(录)(得)(收)(益)(约)(53亿)(元)(人)(民)(币)(,比)(去)(年)(同)(期)(的)(47.54亿)(元)(上)(升)(12%;毛)(利)(同)(比)(增)(加)(25.58%至)(12.48亿)(元)(;实)(现)(核)(心)(净)(溢)(利)(约)(为)(2.13亿)(元)(,按)(年)(增)(加)(267%;(如)(下)(图)()其)(拥)(有)(人)(应)(占)(溢)(利)(约)(为)(3.32亿)(元)(,按)(年)(增)(加)(46%;每)(股)(基)(本)(及)(摊)(薄)(盈)(利)(0.11元)(;中)(期)(无)(派)(息)(。
  
  
  一)(、销)(售)(可)(期)(,可)(持)(续)(发)(展)(潜)(力)(强)(
  所)(谓)(优)(质)(公)(司)(,就)(是)(要)(“立)(足)(现)(在)(,布)(局)(将)(来)(”。作)(为)(房)(地)(产)(企)(业)(我)(们)(最)(关)(心)(的)(就)(是)(它)(的)(盈)(利)(能)(力)(、发)(展)(潜)(力)(和)(行)(业)(安)(全)(性)(。下)(面)(我)(们)(就)(来)(看)(看)(绿)(地)(香)(港)(。
  绿)(地)(控)(股)(家)(喻)(户)(晓)(,相)(比)(之)(下)(,绿)(地)(香)(港)(就)(很)(低)(调)(。2013年)(8月)(,绿)(地)(控)(股)(认)(购)(盛)(高)(置)(地)(扩)(大)(后)(股)(本)(的)(60%,成)(为)(控)(股)(股)(东)(,并)(将)(公)(司)(改)(名)(为)(绿)(地)(香)(港)(控)(股)(有)(限)(公)(司)(,简)(称)(绿)(地)(香)(港)((0337.HK)。绿)(地)(香)(港)(是)(绿)(地)(控)(股)(在)(香)(港)(的)(上)(市)(平)(台)(,也)(是)(绿)(地)(集)(团)(连)(接)(境)(内)(外)(资)(源)(的)(桥)(梁)(之)(一)(。
  绿)(地)(香)(港)((0337.HK)来)(自)(分)(部)(的)(收)(益)(包)(括)(物)(业)(销)(售)(、物)(业)(租)(赁)(、物)(业)(管)(理)(及)(其)(他)(相)(关)(服)(务)(以)(及)(酒)(店)(及)(配)(套)(服)(务)(。来)(自)(集)(团)(的)(核)(心)(业)(务)(是)(物)(业)(销)(售)(,占)(总)(收)(益)(达)(94%。
  
  2018年)(上)(半)(年)(绿)(地)(香)(港)((0337.HK)收)(益)(增)(加)(12%,其)(原)(因)(主)(要)(就)(是)(物)(业)(销)(售)(的)(收)(入)(增)(加)(。作)(为)(集)(团)(核)(心)(业)(务)(活)(动)(,2018年)(上)(半)(年)(的)(物)(业)(销)(售)(产)(生)(收)(益)(约)(人)(民)(币)(49.9亿)(元)(,对)(比)(2017年)(同)(期)(的)(约)(45.13亿)(元)(,按)(年)(增)(加)(约)(11%。
  我)(们)(知)(道)(,分)(析)(房)(地)(产)(公)(司)(主)(要)(有)(:“短)(期)(看)(销)(售)(,长)(期)(看)(土)(储)(的)(说)(法)(”。未)(来)(合)(约)(销)(售)(的)(增)(长)(与)(否)(,以)(及)(增)(长)(是)(否)(具)(有)(可)(持)(续)(性)(,其)(核)(心)(就)(是)(集)(团)(的)(土)(地)(储)(备)(情)(况)(。下)(面)(我)(们)(来)(分)(析)(绿)(地)(香)(港)(的)(可)(发)(展)(性)(究)(竟)(如)(何)(。
  二)(、土)(储)(蓄)(力)(,结)(转)(利)(润)(可)(期)(
  土)(地)(是)(房)(地)(产)(开)(发)(公)(司)(的)(生)(命)(线)(,土)(地)(储)(备)(规)(模)(和)(区)(位)(布)(局)(决)(定)(了)(公)(司)(的)(发)(展)(。据)(中)(期)(报)(,绿)(地)(香)(港)((0337.HK)截)(至)(2018年)(上)(半)(年)(收)(购)(8幅)(地)(块)(,新)(增)(495万)(平)(方)(米)(。(如)(下)(图)()集)(团)(2018年)(上)(半)(年)(新)(增)(货)(值)(596亿)(元)(人)(民)(币)(;可)(销)(售)(货)(源)(达)(人)(民)(币)(380亿)(元)(。其)(项)(目)(涵)(盖)(7大)(城)(市)(,8大)(新)(地)(块)(。城)(市)(分)(布)(主)(要)(为)(:二)(线)(城)(市)(为)(44%、三)(线)(城)(市)(为)(49%、四)(线)(城)(市)(为)(7%。其)(物)(业)(类)(型)(包)(括)(住)(宅)(、商)(业)(、办)(公)(、酒)(店)(。其)(中)(,还)(是)(以)(住)(宅)(为)(主)(占)(比)(达)(83%。
  
  
  据)(绿)(地)(香)(港)((0337.HK)董)(事)(局)(主)(席)(兼)(行)(政)(总)(裁)(陈)(军)(在)(3月)(29日)(业)(绩)(会)(上)(公)(布)(,集)(团)(2018年)(的)(合)(约)(销)(售)(目)(标)(不)(少)(于)(400亿)(元)(。既)(是)(截)(至)(2018年)(7月)(,公)(司)(已)(经)(完)(成)(销)(售)(目)(标)(的)(近)(一)(半)(为)(46.28%。
  并)(且)(由)(于)(上)(半)(年)(公)(司)(推)(盘)(计)(划)(主)(要)(集)(中)(在)(二)(季)(度)(以)(后)(,前)(期)(并)(未)(完)(全)(发)(力)(,所)(以)(下)(半)(年)(才)(是)(真)(正)(的)(冲)(刺)(阶)(段)(。加)(上)(以)(前)(我)(们)(分)(析)(过)(,由)(于)(地)(产)(项)(目)(结)(转)(入)(账)(周)(期)(滞)(后)(,集)(团)(去)(年)(销)(售)(的)(301亿)(收)(入)(,大)(部)(分)(将)(在)(今)(年)(结)(转)(,2016年)(至)(2017年)(可)(结)(转)(货)(值)(将)(继)(续)(累)(积)(至)(2018年)(下)(半)(年)(,所)(以)(这)(就)(垫)(定)(了)(2018年)(绿)(地)(香)(港)(丰)(厚)(的)(结)(转)(利)(润)(。我)(们)(对)(绿)(地)(香)(港)(2018-2019利)(润)(预)(计)(如)(下)(:
  
  这)(样)(看)(来)(,绿)(地)(香)(港)((0337.HK)下)(半)(年)(大)(概)(率)(会)(超)(额)(完)(成)(销)(售)(目)(标)(,且)(其)(利)(润)(收)(入)(非)(常)(值)(得)(期)(待)(。
  三)(、运)(营)(效)(率)(全)(面)(提)(升)(
  公)(司)(三)(大)(核)(心)(财)(务)(数)(据)(可)(以)(反)(映)(这)(个)(公)(司)(基)(本)(面)(情)(况)(。
  1、利)(润)(快)(速)(提)(升)(,集)(团)(近)(5年)(净)(利)(润)(有)(快)(速)(提)(升)(之)(势)(。(如)(下)(图)()由)(2014年)(中)(期)(的)(2500万)(增)(长)(至)(2018年)(中)(期)(的)(3.32亿)(人)(民)(币)(。如)(此)(巨)(大)(的)(增)(长)(的)(主)(要)(因)(素)(基)(于)(2点)(:前)(期)(的)(结)(转)(收)(入)(的)(增)(加)(和)(公)(司)(营)(运)(效)(率)(的)(提)(高)(。
  
  由)(图)(我)(们)(看)(到)(,1H2017至)(1H218,集)(团)(营)(业)(净)(利)(润)(的)(涨)(幅)(并)(没)(有)(归)(属)(净)(利)(润)(提)(升)(幅)(度)(大)(,所)(以)(我)(们)(预)(计)(集)(团)(利)(润)(的)(提)(升)(并)(不)(是)(因)(为)(结)(转)(收)(入)(增)(加)(而)(引)(起)(的)(。因)(此)(可)(以)(推)(断)(,主)(要)(还)(是)(公)(司)(运)(营)(效)(率)(在)(近)(年)(得)(到)(了)(很)(好)(的)(提)(升)(作)(用)(。
  2、毛)(利)(涨)(幅)(过)(半)(,如)(下)(图)(绿)(地)(香)(港)((0337.HK)2014年)(至)(2018年)(中)(期)(毛)(利)(润)(3.23亿)(上)(涨)(至)(12.48亿)(元)(人)(民)(币)(,近)(5年)(整)(体)(上)(涨)(74.12%;
  
  集)(团)(毛)(利)(的)(稳)(步)(提)(升)(也)(反)(映)(了)(在)(运)(营)(效)(率)(在)(逐)(步)(成)(熟)(,通)(过)(对)(公)(司)(分)(析)(,我)(们)(发)(现)(其)(原)(因)(有)(2点)(:
  1)获)(取)(土)(地)(成)(本)(低)(。由)(于)(前)(瞻)(性)(的)(土)(地)(布)(局)(,以)(及)(依)(托)(母)(公)(司)(资)(源)(,绿)(地)(香)(港)(平)(均)(土)(地)(成)(本)(价)(格)(仅)(为)(2,300元)(每)(平)(米)(,只)(占)(到)(销)(售)(均)(价)(13,257元)(/平)(米)(的)(17%,远)(低)(于)(行)(业)(平)(均)(水)(平)(。充)(足)(的)(土)(地)(储)(备)(蕴)(含)(了)(丰)(厚)(的)(利)(润)(,我)(们)(预)(计)(公)(司)(未)(来)(利)(润)(空)(间)(将)(持)(续)(提)(升)(。
  2)重)(视)(专)(业)(团)(队)(和)(人)(才)(储)(备)(。集)(团)(利)(用)(专)(业)(的)(团)(队)(带)(动)(了)(效)(率)(的)(提)(升)(,在)(2018年)(,绿)(地)(香)(港)(加)(强)(了)(团)(队)(优)(化)(,并)(推)(出)(员)(工)(激)(励)(计)(划)(,“人)(和)(”也)(已)(具)(备)(。开)(始)(推)(行)(培)(育)(中)(坚)(力)(量)(的)(人)(才)(战)(略)(,在)(全)(球)(100所)(高)(校)(引)(进)(管)(培)(生)(,并)(且)(针)(对)(不)(同)(层)(级)(的)(管)(理)(及)(技)(术)(员)(工)(开)(展)(不)(同)(培)(养)(计)(划)(,足)(够)(的)(人)(才)(储)(备)(夯)(实)(了)(公)(司)(千)(亿)(目)(标)(的)(基)(础)(。
  基)(于)(这)(两)(点)(重)(要)(因)(素)(,绿)(地)(香)(港)(具)(备)(了)(可)(持)(续)(发)(展)(的)(天)(时)(、地)(利)(、人)(和)(,未)(来)(发)(展)(不)(容)(小)(觑)(。
  
  3、财)(务)(稳)(健)(、债)(务)(结)(构)(合)(理)(
  业)(绩)(增)(长)(的)(同)(时)(,绿)(地)(香)(港)(始)(终)(保)(持)(稳)(健)(财)(务)(策)(略)(及)(合)(理)(的)(债)(务)(结)(构)(,其)(中)(65%为)(长)(期)(债)(务)(,35%为)(短)(期)(债)(务)(。平)(均)(融)(资)(成)(本)(4.7%,连)(续)(五)(年)(保)(持)(行)(业)(低)(位)(。境)(外)(有)(息)(债)(务)(占)(比)(下)(降)(至)(38%,在)(美)(元)(持)(续)(升)(值)(的)(预)(期)(之)(下)(,境)(外)(有)(息)(债)(务)(的)(大)(幅)(度)(下)(降)(,显)(着)(降)(低)(了)(公)(司)(债)(务)(的)(汇)(兑)(风)(险)(。
  
  (图)(为)(有)(息)(债)(务)(/总)(资)(产)(走)(势)(图)()
  四)(、行)(业)(新)(亮)(点)(,产)(业)(多)(元)(化)(
  近)(年)(,在)(房)(地)(产)(多)(元)(化)(发)(展)(寻)(求)(转)(型)(的)(道)(路)(上)(,绿)(地)(香)(港)(也)(开)(始)(多)(点)(布)(局)(。选)(择)(实)(施)(“房)(地)(产)(+”战)(略)((文)(商)(旅)(、医)(康)(养)(、金)(融)(服)(务)(等)()。公)(司)(积)(极)(布)(局)(文)(商)(旅)(和)(医)(康)(养)(地)(产)(项)(目)(,深)(化)(房)(地)(产)(产)(业)(链)(。现)(在)(已)(经)(有)(多)(个)(成)(熟)(项)(目)(落)(地)(:
  1)与)(澳)(大)(利)(亚)(莫)(朗)(国)(际)(健)(康)(集)(团)(、上)(海)(国)(际)(医)(学)(中)(心)(达)(成)(战)(略)(合)(作)(,落)(地)(上)(海)(首)(个)(阿)(兹)(海)(默)(症)(专)(业)(照)(护)(机)(构)(,专)(注)(于)(老)(年)(特)(殊)(人)(群)(的)(高)(端)(护)(理)(,为)(老)(年)(人)(创)(造)(有)(尊)(严)(、有)(质)(量)(的)(晚)(年)(生)(活)(。
  2)被)(誉)(为)(“湾)(区)(最)(美)(小)(镇)(“的)(「佛)(山)(绿)(地)(·拾)(野)(川)(」项)(目)(也)(正)(式)(亮)(相)(。作)(为)(“文)(商)(旅)(居)(布)(局)(”的)(重)(点)(项)(目)(,致)(力)(于)(打)(造)(世)(界)(级)(运)(动)(休)(闲)(度)(假)(小)(镇)(的)(项)(目)(,现)(已)(是)(绿)(地)(香)(港)(文)(商)(旅)(居)(布)(局)(的)(经)(典)(之)(作)(。
  
  3)为)(了)(拥)(抱)(信)(息)(化)(,绿)(地)(香)(港)(自)(主)(研)(发)(运)(营)(的)(互)(联)(网)(智)(慧)(电)(商)(采)(购)(平)(台)(——“合)(制)(”于)(今)(年)(6月)(底)(公)(测)(上)(线)(,瞄)(准)(线)(上)(建)(筑)(材)(料)(采)(购)(和)(产)(业)(链)(升)(级)(,大)(幅)(节)(省)(招)(标)(时)(间)(和)(人)(力)(投)(入)(,降)(低)(采)(购)(成)(本)(。长)(远)(来)(看)(,绿)(地)(香)(港)(在)(特)(色)(地)(产)(的)(下)(注)(或)(会)(成)(为)(未)(来)(业)(绩)(重)(要)(的)(增)(长)(点)(。
  绿)(地)(香)(港)((0337.HK)近)(5年)(公)(司)(基)(本)(面)(好)(,三)(大)(核)(心)(数)(据)(都)(维)(持)(稳)(步)(向)(上)(趋)(势)(,集)(团)(运)(营)(能)(力)(强)(,业)(绩)(稳)(定)(,在)(房)(产)(行)(业)(的)(确)(是)(一)(只)(不)(错)(的)(避)(险)(股)(。下)(面)(我)(们)(来)(看)(看)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(情)(况)(。
  五)(、股)(价)(持)(续)(低)(迷)(,估)(值)(偏)(低)(
  进)(入)(今)(年)(7月)(,房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(在)(二)(级)(市)(场)(逐)(渐)(呈)(现)(出)(回)(暖)(态)(势)(,内)(房)(板)(块)(在)(年)(初)(达)(到)(历)(史)(高)(位)(,登)(顶)(后)(急)(速)(下)(跌)(,仅)(仅)(只)(经)(历)(了)(2月)(上)(旬)(不)(到)(十)(来)(天)(的)(时)(间)(,就)(已)(经)(基)(本)(抹)(平)(了)(年)(初)(开)(门)(红)(的)(涨)(幅)(。从)(2月)(中)(旬)(到)(5月)(底)(这)(一)(阶)(段)(整)(个)(内)(房)(股)(基)(本)(上)(没)(有)(太)(多)(变)(幅)(,直)(到)(6月)(上)(旬)(板)(块)(才)(开)(始)(有)(所)(表)(现)(,但)(是)(涨)(幅)(也)(只)(是)(从)(容)(不)(惊)(。但)(我)(们)(看)(到)(,进)(入)(8月)(,总)(体)(开)(始)(有)(回)(暖)(之)(势)(。(如)(下)(图)()其)(原)(因)(主)(要)(是)(8月)(地)(产)(板)(块)(中)(期)(业)(绩)(盈)(喜)(频)(频)(,使)(得)(股)(价)(快)(速)(反)(应)(。
  
  (图)(为)(香)(港)(内)(房)(行)(业)(股)(价)(走)(势)(图)()
  虽)(然)(市)(场)(普)(遍)(预)(期)(2018年)(下)(半)(年)(政)(策)(调)(控)(不)(会)(出)(现)(太)(大)(的)(放)(松)(,但)(对)(于)(优)(质)(公)(司)(的)(发)(展)(而)(言)(,挑)(战)(即)(是)(机)(会)(。绿)(地)(香)(港)(2018年)(上)(半)(年)(销)(售)(业)(绩)(稳)(定)(,且)(进)(入)(2018年)(下)(半)(年)(,结)(转)(利)(润)(将)(有)(一)(个)(较)(大)(的)(增)(长)(,有)(望)(超)(额)(完)(成)(400亿)(的)(销)(售)(目)(标)(,致)(使)(绿)(地)(香)(港)(股)(票)(的)(投)(资)(回)(报)(率)(上)(升)(;且)(从)(ROIC(投)(资)(资)(本)(回)(报)(率)(=每)(股)(净)(利)(/股)(价)()角)(度)(看)(,这)(一)(水)(平)(的)(投)(资)(回)(报)(率)(的)(确)(远)(高)(于)(目)(前)(许)(多)(地)(产)(项)(目)(的)(利)(润)(率)(。
  
  截)(至)(2018年)(中)(期)(,绿)(地)(香)(港)(股)(价)(由)(6月)(份)(开)(始)(整)(体)(有)(所)(下)(调)(,截)(至)(8月)(31日)(,集)(团)(PE为)(4.68倍)(,PB仅)(为)(0.62,纵)(观)(行)(业)(平)(均)(情)(况)(PE为)(10,绿)(地)(香)(港)(明)(显)(偏)(低)(。(如)(下)(图)()另)(外)(考)(虑)(到)(公)(司)(各)(方)(面)(经)(营)(表)(现)(不)(错)(,业)(绩)(确)(定)(性)(强)(,而)(且)(近)(期)(大)(动)(作)(不)(断)(,相)(信)(后)(期)(股)(价)(还)(是)(会)(有)(不)(错)(的)(表)(现)(。
  
  (图)(为)(绿)(地)(香)(港)(2018年)(1月)(至)(今)(股)(价)(走)(势)(图)()
  
  结)(束)(语)(:
  展)(望)(未)(来)(,2018年)(注)(定)(是)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(重)(要)(的)(转)(折)(点)(,在)(政)(府)(确)(定)(“房)(子)(是)(用)(来)(住)(的)(,不)(是)(用)(来)(炒)(的)(”明)(确)(主)(线)(背)(景)(下)(,绿)(地)(香)(港)(稳)(中)(求)(进)(,积)(极)(补)(充)(优)(质)(土)(储)(,提)(升)(营)(运)(效)(率)(,近)(年)(更)(是)(多)(点)(布)(局)(,多)(元)(化)(产)(业)(,这)(些)(都)(将)(成)(为)(未)(来)(业)(绩)(的)(新)(增)(长)(驱)(动)(力)(。
  进)(入)(2018年)(,集)(团)(在)(二)(级)(市)(场)(上)(股)(价)(表)(现)(已)(处)(于)(低)(位)(,下)(半)(年)(,随)(着)(完)(成)(销)(售)(合)(约)(目)(标)(的)(推)(动)(和)(利)(润)(持)(续)(增)(长)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,市)(场)(反)(应)(或)(将)(会)(有)(更)(加)(优)(异)(的)(表)(现)(。如)(此)(低)(估)(值)(,高)(回)(报)(率)(的)(房)(地)(产)(股)(,值)(得)(关)(注)(。
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