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论中国建筑在港10年“财技”

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年05月22日 08:57:05
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(原)(标)(题)(:集)(资)(发)(展)(?还)(是)(顺)(势)(收)(割)(?论)(中)(国)(建)(筑)(在)(港)(10年)(“财)(技)(”
文)(|冯)(积)(克)(
玩)(过)(《王)(者)(荣)(耀)(》或)(《英)(雄)(联)(盟)(》的)(朋)(友)(都)(知)(道)(,游)(戏)(地)(图)(上)(有)(三)(条)(大)(路)(,每)(一)(条)(路)(都)(可)(以)(抵)(达)(敌)(方)(阵)(营)(,也)(正)(是)(俗)(话)(所)(说)(的)(“条)(条)(大)(路)(通)(罗)(马)(”,不)(过)(路)(上)(难)(免)(要)(先)(和)(敌)(方)(大)(战)(三)(百)(回)(合)(。
单)(靠)(称)(霸)(其)(中)(的)(一)(条)(路)(,有)(时)(候)(并)(不)(足)(以)(战)(胜)(对)(手)(。如)(果)(你)(疏)(忽)(其)(余)(的)(两)(条)(路)(,对)(方)(可)(能)(会)(突)(然)(杀)(你)(个)(措)(手)(不)(及)(,令)(你)(不)(得)(不)(撤)(退)(回)(防)(。要)(确)(保)(安)(全)(又)(高)(效)(地)(战)(胜)(对)(手)(,最)(好)(的)(方)(法)(就)(是)(放)(眼)(全)(局)(,环)(顾)(四)(方)(,对)(任)(何)(一)(路)(都)(不)(能)(大)(意)(。
这)(个)(道)(理)(有)(如)(投)(资)(,三)(条)(大)(路)(好)(比)(长)(中)(短)(线)(。如)(果)(你)(只)(精)(于)(一)(线)(,当)(然)(也)(会)(有)(成)(功)(的)(机)(会)(。但)(长)(远)(来)(看)(,同)(时)(注)(意)(三)(条)(战)(线)(,考)(虑)(上)(述)(三)(方)(因)(素)(,罗)(马)(大)(路)(才)(会)(畅)(通)(无)(阻)(。
我)(之)(所)(以)(说)(那)(么)(多)(,正)(是)(因)(为)(今)(天)(的)(主)(角)(中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)((3311.HK)同)(时)(拥)(有)(长)(中)(短)(线)(三)(大)(因)(素)(在)(背)(后)(支)(撑)(。
一)(、短)(线)(—8供)(1利)(空)(因)(素)(出)(尽)(
先)(说)(一)(下)(短)(线)(,中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(于)(8月)(22日)(宣)(布)(8供)(1供)(股)(计)(划)(,集)(资)(约)(63.56亿)(港)(元)(,认)(购)(价)(11.33港)(元)(,相)(比)(8月)(21日)(收)(盘)(价)((12.5港)(元)()折)(让)(约)(9.36%。
以)(供)(股)(方)(式)(发)(行)(的)(股)(份)(约)(5.61亿)(股)(,经)(扩)(大)(后)(占)(公)(司)(股)(本)(约)(11.11%(占)(原)(有)(已)(发)(行)(股)(本)(的)(12.5%)。
这)(次)(供)(股)(计)(划)(引)(起)(不)(少)(小)(股)(东)(愤)(懑)(。那)(是)(自)(然)(了)(,谁)(会)(喜)(欢)(被)(集)(资)(呢)(?
加)(上)(港)(股)(市)(场)(的)(特)(性)(,散)(户)(普)(遍)(都)(会)(有)(“集)(资)(=老)(千)(”的)(观)(念)(,而)(且)(,中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(于)(8月)(22日)(建)(议)(供)(股)(的)(同)(时)(,也)(宣)(布)(派)(发)(每)(股)(0.15港)(元)(的)(中)(期)(股)(息)((总)(额)(约)(6.7亿)(港)(元)()。
这)(难)(免)(会)(令)(投)(资)(者)(有)(所)(反)(感)(,所)(以)(,股)(价)(曾)(一)(度)(跌)(破)(供)(股)(价)(,不)(过)(之)(后)(回)(稳)(,并)(持)(续)(在)(供)(股)(价)(水)(平)(振)(荡)(。
中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(的)(大)(股)(东)(为)(中)(国)(海)(外)(集)(团)((简)(称)(:“中)(国)(海)(外)(”),共)(持)(有)(公)(司)(62.96%股)(权)(,而)(中)(国)(海)(外)(隶)(属)(于)(国)(企)(“中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(工)(程)(总)(公)(司)(”。
此)(次)(供)(股)(协)(议)(中)(,中)(国)(海)(外)(为)(包)(销)(商)(,有)(国)(企)(在)(背)(后)(坐)(镇)(,真)(的)(很)(难)(和)(老)(千)(扯)(上)(关)(系)(,所)(以)(,我)(相)(信)(公)(司)(集)(资)(是)(真)(的)(为)(了)(发)(展)(业)(务)(。
无)(论)(某)(部)(分)(小)(股)(东)(有)(多)(不)(满)(,供)(股)(一)(事)(已)(尘)(埃)(落)(定)(,他)(们)(能)(做)(的)(就)(只)(有)(举)(脚)(投)(票)(。
因)(此)(,股)(份)(于)(上)(星)(期)(除)(权)(后)(,那)(一)(群)(不)(满)(的)(小)(股)(东)(相)(信)(都)(已)(经)(陆)(续)(沽)(货)(。换)(句)(话)(说)(,来)(自)(短)(线)(的)(抛)(压)(已)(经)(在)(逐)(步)(消)(除)(。
供)(股)(的)(截)(止)(日)(为)(10月)(3日)(下)(午)(4时)(,而)(供)(股)(股)(份)(会)(于)(10月)(13日)(才)(开)(始)(买)(卖)(。所)(以)(买)(卖)(首)(日)(可)(能)(会)(有)(另)(一)(波)(抛)(压)(。
不)(过)(,由)(于)(中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(的)(供)(股)(权)(可)(以)(在)(市)(场)(上)(买)(卖)(,所)(以)(小)(股)(东)(不)(用)(等)(到)(供)(股)(完)(成)(后)(,将)(所)(得)(股)(份)(在)(市)(场)(上)(卖)(出)(那)(么)(麻)(烦)(。他)(们)(可)(以)(直)(接)(将)(供)(股)(权)(卖)(出)(以)(节)(省)(时)(间)(和)(手)(续)(费)(。按)(此)(推)(断)(,相)(信)(10月)(13日)(当)(天)(抛)(压)(也)(不)(会)(太)(大)(。
目)(前)(公)(司)(的)(预)(测)(市)(盈)(率)(约)(为)(8.5倍)(,估)(值)(已)(经)(跌)(至)(一)(个)(相)(对)(便)(宜)(的)(水)(平)(,短)(线)(下)(跌)(的)(空)(间)(应)(该)(有)(限)(。三)(条)(大)(路)(的)(其)(中)(一)(条)(相)(信)(已)(不)(会)(再)(见)(有)(障)(碍)(物)(了)(,那)(剩)(下)(的)(两)(条)(呢)(?
二)(、中)(长)(线)(—中)(港)(澳)(三)(地)(有)(一)(定)(的)(基)(建)(需)(求)(量)(
公)(司)(现)(有)(合)(约)(量)(充)(足)(
根)(据)(中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(最)(新)(公)(布)(的)(资)(料)(,公)(司)(在)(手)(总)(合)(约)(额)(约)(为)(3,120亿)(港)(元)((其)(中)(未)(完)(合)(约)(额)(约)(为)(1,853亿)(港)(元)()。未)(完)(合)(约)(额)(较)(去)(年)(末)(增)(加)(20.5%(315亿)(港)(元)(),令)(公)(司)(拥)(有)(充)(足)(的)(合)(约)(维)(持)(长)(期)(增)(长)(。
而)(截)(至)(2017年)(8月)(31日)(止)(,8个)(月)(的)(累)(计)(新)(签)(合)(约)(额)(约)(为)(722.6亿)(港)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(长)(28.2%,相)(当)(于)(完)(成)(2017年)(全)(年)(目)(标)(的)(72.3%(公)(司)(已)(将)(目)(标)(金)(额)(从)(原)(本)(的)(900亿)(港)(元)(上)(调)(到)(不)(低)(于)(1,000亿)(港)(元)()。
从)(数)(据)(已)(经)(可)(以)(看)(出)(,自)(2016年)(开)(始)(,新)(签)(合)(约)(额)(一)(直)(保)(持)(快)(速)(增)(长)(,加)(上)(市)(场)(需)(求)(量)(大)(,所)(以)(才)(致)(使)(公)(司)(作)(出)(供)(股)(集)(资)(的)(决)(定)(,借)(此)(把)(握)(更)(多)(中)(国)(基)(建)(项)(目)(的)(投)(资)(机)(会)(。
内)(地)(基)(建)(模)(式)(逐)(渐)(改)(变)(
目)(前)(,中)(国)(内)(地)(正)(逐)(步)(改)(变)(基)(建)(项)(目)(的)(合)(作)(模)(式)(,从)(以)(往)(的)(“建)(造)(—移)(交)(”(BT)及)(“建)(造)(—营)(运)(—移)(交)(”(BOT)转)(为)(公)(共)(私)(营)(合)(作)(制)((PPP),这)(便)(导)(致)(了)(近)(年)(PPP市)(场)(的)(飞)(速)(发)(展)(。
不)(过)(,鉴)(于)(PPP项)(目)(的)(现)(金)(回)(收)(期)(比)(传)(统)(现)(金)(工)(程)(、BT或)(BOT模)(式)(更)(长)(,所)(以)(,PPP项)(目)(对)(公)(司)(的)(现)(金)(要)(求)(会)(更)(大)(。但)(其)(利)(润)(率)(也)(相)(对)(较)(香)(港)(及)(澳)(门)(等)(工)(程)(更)(高)(,由)(此)(带)(动)(整)(体)(毛)(利)(上)(升)(,从)(2016年)(上)(半)(年)(的)(12.2%上)(升)(至)(2017年)(上)(半)(年)(的)(14.2%。
而)(这)(次)(中)(期)(业)(绩)(发)(布)(,公)(司)(净)(利)(润)(达)(24.93亿)(港)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(加)(10.7%,这)(也)(是)(受)(惠)(于)(PPP业)(务)(的)(增)(长)(。预)(期)(政)(府)(会)(逐)(步)(加)(强)(PPP项)(目)(的)(融)(资)(规)(范)(,相)(信)(将)(来)(会)(成)(为)(PPP投)(资)(市)(场)(的)(赢)(家)(,前)(提)(就)(是)(公)(司)(要)(有)(足)(够)(资)(金)(。
简)(单)(来)(说)(,做)(PPP项)(目)(就)(是)(以)(资)(金)(为)(主)(导)(。
中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(目)(前)(的)(净)(负)(债)(率)(为)(58%,供)(股)(集)(资)(可)(将)(比)(率)(降)(至)(40%以)(下)(的)(水)(平)(。
相)(比)(同)(业)(中)(国)(交)(通)(建)(设)((1800.HK)、中)(国)(中)(铁)((0390.HK)、中)(国)(铁)(建)((1186.HK)的)(净)(负)(债)(率)(分)(别)(为)(95%、49%、40%,中)(国)(建)(筑)(的)(净)(负)(债)(率)(将)(会)(处)(于)(较)(低)(水)(平)(,令)(公)(司)(有)(更)(大)(空)(间)(承)(接)(PPP项)(目)(。
投)(资)(者)(可)(能)(会)(担)(心)(PPP项)(目)(的)(资)(金)(需)(求)(量)(会)(影)(响)(公)(司)(派)(息)(,不)(过)(公)(司)(上)(市)(多)(年)(来)(都)(维)(持)(约)(30%的)(派)(息)(比)(率)(,相)(信)(会)(有)(足)(够)(的)(资)(金)(应)(付)(PPP项)(目)(。
(数)(据)(来)(源)(:泓)(汇)(财)(经)()
中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(在)(PPP市)(场)(增)(长)(初)(期)(提)(前)(集)(资)(,其)(实)(,更)(有)(利)(于)(公)(司)(获)(得)(更)(多)(PPP项)(目)(。加)(上)(中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(不)(论)(在)(经)(验)(或)(资)(金)(来)(源)(方)(面)(,均)(优)(于)(规)(模)(较)(小)(的)(对)(手)(,所)(以)(在)(PPP项)(目)(投)(标)(上)(会)(有)(绝)(对)(优)(势)(。
预)(期)(利)(润)(率)(较)(高)(的)(PPP业)(务)(,能)(够)(成)(为)(中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(业)(绩)(的)(主)(要)(增)(长)(动)(力)(。
首)(置)(上)(车)(盘)(计)(划)(利)(好)(香)(港)(基)(建)(
除)(了)(中)(国)(内)(地)(外)(,香)(港)(也)(是)(中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(的)(主)(要)(市)(场)(之)(一)(。根)(据)(公)(司)(中)(期)(业)(绩)(披)(露)(,中)(国)(内)(地)(、香)(港)(及)(澳)(门)(分)(别)(占)(公)(司)(营)(业)(额)(41.2%、36.7%及)(18.4%,香)(港)(市)(场)(对)(公)(司)(业)(绩)(同)(样)(有)(着)(举)(足)(轻)(重)(的)(影)(响)(。
上)(周)(,香)(港)(政)(府)(欲)(推)(出)(“首)(置)(上)(车)(盘)(计)(划)(”,该)(计)(划)(主)(要)(通)(过)(与)(香)(港)(发)(展)(商)(合)(作)(,帮)(助)(香)(港)(永)(久)(性)(居)(民)(进)(行)(首)(次)(置)(业)(。
由)(于)(计)(划)(可)(能)(会)(加)(速)(农)(地)(转)(换)(,所)(以)(,会)(利)(好)(拥)(有)(农)(地)(作)(为)(土)(地)(储)(备)(的)(地)(产)(商)(。
农)(地)(储)(备)(最)(多)(的)(四)(大)(香)(港)(地)(产)(商)(分)(别)(为)(:
恒)(基)(地)(产)((0012.HK)、新)(鸿)(基)(地)(产)((0016.HK)
新)(世)(界)(发)(展)((0017.HK)、长)(实)(地)(产)((1113.HK)
以)(上)(四)(大)(地)(产)(商)(的)(股)(价)(于)(上)(周)(五)(一)(日)(内)(平)(均)(上)(涨)(约)(4.8%,总)(市)(值)(提)(升)(400多)(亿)(港)(元)(。
四)(大)(香)(港)(地)(产)(商)(共)(持)(有)(1.024亿)(平)(方)(尺)(农)(地)(,假)(设)(以)(5倍)(地)(积)(比)(率)((新)(发)(展)(区)(的)(最)(高)(地)(积)(比)(率)(可)(达)(到)(6.5倍)()及)(每)(个)(单)(位)(400平)(方)(尺)(计)(算)(,可)(为)(香)(港)(未)(来)(兴)(建)(128万)(个)(单)(位)(,预)(计)(中)(长)(期)(的)(工)(程)(量)(不)(会)(少)(。
逻)(辑)(告)(诉)(我)(,“首)(置)(上)(车)(盘)(计)(划)(”利)(好)(上)(述)(的)(四)(大)(发)(展)(商)(,建)(筑)(商)(当)(然)(也)(会)(受)(惠)(。如)(果)(“首)(置)(上)(车)(盘)(计)(划)(”能)(够)(得)(到)(落)(实)(,中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(身)(为)(香)(港)(大)(型)(建)(筑)(商)(之)(一)(的)(受)(惠)(程)(度)(可)(想)(而)(知)(。
除)(此)(之)(外)(,粤)(港)(澳)(大)(湾)(区)(发)(展)(计)(划)(及)(澳)(门)(的)(填)(海)(工)(程)(预)(计)(也)(能)(带)(动)(珠)(江)(三)(角)(洲)(地)(区)(对)(基)(建)(的)(投)(资)(量)(。
中)(长)(线)(的)(增)(长)(因)(素)(拥)(有)(高)(确)(定)(性)(,所)(以)(三)(条)(大)(路)(的)(第)(二)(条)(也)(相)(当)(明)(朗)(,那)(剩)(下)(的)(最)(后)(一)(条)(呢)(?
三)(、长)(线)(—不)(会)(输)(在)(公)(司)(,只)(会)(输)(在)(耐)(心)(
看)(长)(线)(,从)(公)(司)(2005年)(上)(市)(以)(来)(到)(现)(在)(够)(长)(了)(吧)(?
根)(据)(资)(料)(纪)(录)(,中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(上)(市)(12年)(来)(总)(共)(有)(6次)(配)(售)(和)(供)(股)(等)(集)(资)(行)(为)((包)(含)(这)(一)(次)(8供)(1),而)(当)(中)(有)(4次)(属)(于)(供)(股)(。
(数)(据)(来)(源)(:泓)(汇)(财)(经)()
从)(上)(图)(能)(看)(到)(,如)(果)(每)(次)(供)(股)(,股)(东)(都)(参)(与)(的)(话)(,长)(线)(来)(看)(,他)(们)(没)(亏)(过)(半)(毛)(钱)(。即)(使)(在)(投)(资)(过)(程)(中)(,会)(碰)(上)(市)(况)(转)(坏)(、股)(价)(大)(幅)(回)(落)(等)(较)(差)(的)(情)(况)(,股)(价)(最)(终)(仍)(会)(反)(弹)(。
下)(图)(为)(公)(司)(不)(复)(权)(的)(股)(价)(图)(,让)(各)(位)(可)(细)(看)(每)(段)(的)(供)(股)(时)(期)(。在)(4次)(供)(股)(中)(,这)(次)(供)(股)(是)(首)(次)(股)(价)(在)(供)(股)(还)(未)(完)(成)(时)(已)(跌)(至)(供)(股)(价)(的)(水)(平)(,过)(往)(3次)(都)(未)(曾)(发)(生)(。相)(信)(这)(次)(是)(市)(场)(反)(应)(过)(大)(,才)(会)(造)(成)(这)(种)(“杯)(具)(”。
除)(了)(供)(股)(外)(,参)(与)(公)(司)(2次)(配)(售)(的)(投)(资)(者)(都)(同)(样)(没)(有)(亏)(钱)(。喜)(欢)(投)(资)(中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(的)(机)(构)(或)(专)(业)(投)(资)(者)(对)(其)(是)(有)(十)(足)(的)(耐)(心)(才)(会)(投)(资)(它)(,相)(信)(这)(次)(供)(股)(,他)(们)(也)(会)(全)(力)(支)(持)(。
公)(司)(上)(市)(12年)(来)(,从)(2004年)(每)(股)(盈)(利)(0.1793港)(元)(增)(长)(至)(目)(前)(每)(股)(0.5556港)(元)((2017年)(中)(报)(),复)(合)(增)(长)(率)(约)(达)(到)(9.9%。盈)(利)(一)(直)(保)(持)(隐)(定)(的)(增)(长)(,加)(上)(每)(年)(都)(派)(息)(,公)(司)(的)(表)(现)(已)(经)(超)(越)(不)(少)(上)(市)(公)(司)(。
供)(股)(集)(资)(可)(能)(在)(短)(时)(间)(内)(会)(伤)(了)(小)(股)(东)(的)(心)(,不)(过)(如)(果)(资)(金)(用)(得)(其)(所)(,公)(司)(于)(长)(线)(能)(够)(为)(股)(东)(争)(取)(更)(大)(、更)(长)(远)(的)(回)(报)(,又)(何)(乐)(而)(不)(为)(?
投)(资)(可)(以)(是)(一)(件)(看)(长)(线)(的)(事)(情)(,而)(且)(事)(实)(证)(明)(,公)(司)(3次)(供)(股)(后)(都)(没)(有)(令)(小)(股)(东)(失)(望)(。
四)(、结)(语)(
总)(体)(来)(说)(,以)(我)(目)(前)(观)(察)(到)(的)(中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(:
短)(线)(:
供)(股)(的)(阴)(霾)(已)(散)(尽)(,要)(走)(的)(小)(股)(东)(也)(走)(得)(七)(七)(八)(八)(,压)(抑)(股)(价)(的)(抛)(压)(已)(不)(复)(存)(在)(。加)(上)(有)(相)(对)(便)(宜)(的)(估)(值)(作)(支)(撑)(,下)(跌)(空)(间)(有)(限)(。
中)(长)(线)(:
中)(国)(PPP项)(目)(落)(地)(率)(在)(提)(升)(,公)(司)(在)(PPP上)(有)(显)(著)(优)(势)(。香)(港)(欲)(实)(行)(“首)(置)(上)(车)(盘)(计)(划)(”,公)(司)(身)(为)(香)(港)(大)(型)(建)(筑)(商)(之)(一)(,将)(同)(时)(受)(惠)(。合)(约)(额)(将)(会)(保)(持)(增)(长)(。
长)(线)(:
12年)(上)(市)(历)(史)(证)(明)(中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(有)(能)(力)(保)(持)(盈)(利)(增)(长)(。经)(历)(3次)(供)(股)(和)(2次)(配)(股)(,最)(后)(公)(司)(股)(价)(仍)(持)(续)(攀)(升)(。输)(钱)(的)(人)(只)(是)(输)(在)(缺)(乏)(耐)(心)(,不)(是)(输)(在)(公)(司)(盈)(利)(能)(力)(上)(。
虽)(然)(,三)(条)(大)(路)(已)(经)(全)(部)(Clear完)(毕)(,不)(过)(公)(司)(的)(主)(要)(玩)(家)(都)(是)(长)(线)(资)(金)(,你)(不)(能)(奢)(望)(股)(价)(能)(一)(步)(到)(位)(。
在)(现)(今)(股)(价)(狂)(舞)(的)(港)(股)(市)(场)(,中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(显)(然)(不)(是)(一)(个)(富)(有)(吸)(引)(力)(的)(投)(资)(目)(标)(,但)(对)(于)(不)(想)(追)(涨)(的)(保)(守)(投)(资)(者)(来)(说)(,其)(实)(是)(个)(不)(错)(的)(选)(择)(。
对)(于)(用)(行)(动)(去)(押)(注)(中)(国)(建)(筑)(国)(际)(未)(来)(的)(朋)(友)(,相)(信)(都)(是)(喜)(欢)(在)(游)(戏)(中)(,慢)(慢)(推)(进)(,酝)(酿)(实)(力)(,富)(有)(耐)(心)(的)(一)(群)(人)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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